Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2026, Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, issued a stark warning regarding the state of the global economy. Kobyakov stated that global debt has reached unprecedented levels, drawing parallels to the period preceding the 2008 financial crisis.
Global Debt Surpasses $330 Trillion Mark
Kobyakov revealed that global debt has now exceeded $330 trillion, a figure representing more than 300% of global GDP. Government debt alone stands at approximately $115 trillion, or around 110% of global GDP. He highlighted that the United States continues to hold the world's largest debt market, with risks accumulating across Western economies.
“This is not yet a full-scale crisis, but it is no longer the early morning twilight either. The situation is already being compared with 2007,” Kobyakov remarked, emphasizing the growing concerns. He also pointed out significant debt burdens in other major economies, noting that the UK’s aggregate debt surpasses 400% of its GDP, while Japan’s debt is close to 250% of its GDP. The US national debt, he added, is nearing $40 trillion.
The Dollar's Declining Influence and a Multi-Currency Future
Beyond the escalating debt, Kobyakov asserted that confidence in the US dollar is weakening. “The dollar is losing trust. Countries are moving away from the American currency. The world is already moving towards several reserve currencies,” he stated.
This transition towards a multi-currency system is, according to Kobyakov, part of a broader fragmentation of the global economy. He argued that attempts to preserve the existing financial order are becoming increasingly difficult as new economic centers emerge and the world divides into distinct economic blocs. “The process has already begun. There are practically no binding elements left that can keep everything within a single system,” he observed.
Seeking Alternative Global Mechanisms
Kobyakov concluded by stressing the urgent need for countries to develop alternative mechanisms for finance, trade, scientific cooperation, and security. He suggested that the path to avoiding a full-scale crisis lies in establishing a global institutional alternative to the current world order, reflecting the profound shifts underway in international relations and economics.