Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) is bracing for a diverse performance across its business segments for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. While some brokerages anticipate a slight dip in net profit, others foresee a modest increase, driven primarily by robust growth in its telecom (Jio), retail, and oil-to-chemical (O2C) divisions.
Overall Financial Outlook
Emkay Global projects RIL's net profit to decline by 2.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 17,567 crore, despite a significant 38.9 percent rise in sales to Rs 3,38,420 crore. Their estimate for EBITDA is a 4.9 percent increase year-on-year, reaching Rs 45,013 crore. In contrast, Elara expects RIL's Q1 profit to rise by 2.4 percent to Rs 18,512 crore, with consolidated EBITDA growing 8 percent year-on-year. Kotak Institutional Equities forecasts an adjusted net income of Rs 19,004 crore.
Jio: Subscriber Growth and ARPU
The digital services arm, Jio, is expected to be a key growth driver. Analysts predict substantial subscriber additions, with estimates ranging from 70 lakh to 95 lakh in Q1 FY27 (which corresponds to Q1 2026). ICICI Securities projects 70 lakh new subscribers, while Emkay Global anticipates 95 lakh. Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for Jio is also expected to see a marginal improvement, with ICICI Securities pegging it at Rs 215, up from Rs 214 in the previous quarter.
Retail Segment Performance
RIL's retail segment is poised for healthy expansion. Emkay Global forecasts a 1 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in Retail EBITDA to Rs 6,990 crore. ICICI Securities is more bullish, predicting a 7 percent year-on-year growth in retail EBITDA to Rs 6,830 crore. Elara projects a 10 percent EBITDA growth in the retail sector, while Kotak notes a relatively muted 12 percent year-on-year revenue growth.
Oil-to-Chemical (O2C) and Upstream Segments
The O2C segment is expected to benefit from strong SEZ refinery earnings, US ethane-based petrochemicals, and a weaker rupee. Emkay Global sees O2C EBITDA rising 2 percent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 14,800 crore. ICICI Securities expects an even stronger 25 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in O2C EBITDA. However, Elara predicts O2C EBITDA to remain flat year-on-year.
Conversely, the upstream oil and gas business is anticipated to be the weakest link. Both Emkay Global and ICICI Securities foresee a decline in upstream EBITDA, primarily due to lower KG-D6 gas production volumes. Elara estimates a significant 21 percent drop in E&P EBITDA.