Shares of diversified conglomerate ITC Ltd experienced a significant decline on Thursday, falling 4.15 percent to reach a 52-week low of Rs 254.30. This sharp drop occurred concurrently with a substantial block deal on the market, involving 366,695,297 ITC shares at an average price of Rs 257.35. The total value of this transaction was approximately Rs 9,436.90 crore, though details regarding the participating buyers and sellers remain undisclosed.
This latest downturn contributes to a broader trend for ITC's stock, which has now seen a roughly 30 percent decline since the beginning of calendar year 2026.
Previous Share Transactions and Major Holders
The block deal follows an earlier disclosure this week concerning US-based fund house GQG Partners LLC. Between May 28, 2025, and October 5, 2026, GQG Partners executed multiple market transactions, selling 3.97 crore ITC shares. These sales reduced GQG Partners' combined holding (including persons acting in concert) in ITC's total voting capital from 3.48 percent to 3.17 percent.
ITC is notable for having no promoter shareholding. As of June 30, key institutional investors included the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) with a 7.78 percent stake, Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd (LIC) holding 16.3 percent, and domestic mutual funds collectively owning 16.5 percent.
British American Tobacco (BAT) remains a significant shareholder, holding 22.91 percent through its wholly-owned subsidiaries: Tobacco Manufacturers (India) Ltd (17.79 percent), Myddleton Investment Company Ltd (3.88 percent), and Rothmans International Enterprises Ltd (1.24 percent).
Analyst Views and Future Outlook
Brokerage firm Citi recently upgraded its rating on ITC from 'Sell' to 'Buy', raising its target price to Rs 300 from Rs 270. This upgrade comes despite Citi's expectation that ITC's near-term earnings could face pressure due to recent increases in cigarette taxation.
"Since the tax hike, ITC has implemented mitigating actions including calibrated price increases and portfolio interventions across key segments. As per our estimates, 75 per cent of the tax increase has already been passed through price hikes, while new launches across LSFT and Premium-DSFT should help retain consumers within ITC's portfolio in the event of downtrading," Citi stated.
Citi anticipates continued pressure on near-term cigarette volumes from competition and illicit products but projects an improvement in cigarette profitability sequentially through FY27 as pricing actions take full effect.
Conversely, Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, maintains a cautious stance on ITC. He views the stock as a risky investment due to uncertainties surrounding government taxation policies and stricter tobacco regulations. Singh suggests that despite the significant fall this year, earnings pressure may persist, and current valuations at around 16x P/E are not particularly attractive given the inherent risks. He advises retail investors to avoid fresh buying and await clearer market signals, projecting a potential fall towards Rs 190.
Technical Analysis
AR Ramachandran, a Sebi-registered research analyst at Tips2trades, indicated that ITC's stock exhibits a bearish trend on daily charts, with strong resistance identified at Rs 269.3. He warned that a daily close below the support level of Rs 250 could trigger a further decline towards Rs 224 in the short term.