Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit New Delhi on September 12-13 for the BRICS summit, where he is expected to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This visit marks Xi's first to India since 2019 and aims to test the resilience of a delicate thaw in relations between the two Asian powers. However, long-standing disputes concerning their shared border, trade imbalances, and China's strategic alliance with Pakistan continue to pose significant hurdles to a broader engagement framework.
Efforts Towards Stabilizing India-China Ties
The renewed diplomatic engagement follows a series of steps designed to stabilize bilateral relations. PM Modi and President Xi previously met on the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, and again in Tianjin in 2025. Since then, direct flights between India and China have resumed, and New Delhi has eased some restrictions on investments by Chinese companies. Last month, both nations also reported limited progress in their ongoing border negotiations.
Despite these overtures, analysts caution against interpreting the current easing of tensions as a fundamental strategic reset. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, characterized the improved relations as "pragmatic risk management." He noted that while both countries acknowledge that a volatile border would undermine their long-term economic priorities, deep strategic mistrust between them persists.
Persistent Friction Points: Border, Trade, and Pakistan
The 3,488-kilometer frontier remains a primary source of tension. A deadly confrontation in June 2020 led to casualties on both sides and prompted India to impose tighter restrictions on Chinese investment and technology. The lingering strain was evident when President Xi skipped the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, sending Premier Li Qiang in his stead.
Economic concerns are also expected to feature prominently in the discussions. India is particularly worried about Chinese export controls on vital machinery, such as tunnel-digging equipment, and critical inputs like rare-earth magnets and oxides, which are crucial for its manufacturing sector. Conversely, Beijing remains wary of India's growing alignment with the United States on technology, trade, and defense matters.
Adding another layer of complexity is China's expanding defense relationship with Pakistan. New Delhi remains uneasy about Beijing’s military engagement with its regional rival, notably Pakistan's deployment of Chinese fighter jets during its clashes with India last year.
The US Factor and Prospects for Dialogue
Reema Bhattacharya of Verisk Maplecroft highlighted that the India-China rivalry is the biggest constraint on BRICS cohesion. She described the current thaw as "tactical and fragile," partly driven by a shared frustration with US tariffs, warning that bilateral tensions could quickly resurface.
Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution suggested that positive outcomes from the Xi-Modi meeting could include a framework for dialogue on trade and investment, cooperation on green technology, and efforts to address India's concerns regarding Chinese rare-earth supplies.
The evolving dynamics of US-China and US-India relationships also play a role. With India-US ties facing some strains and China-US relations showing signs of improvement, Beijing has additional incentives to maintain stable relations with New Delhi. President Xi's visit therefore presents an opportunity to build confidence, but unresolved disputes indicate that the current thaw remains tactical rather than a prelude to a lasting strategic reset.