All eyes are on West Bengal as the state prepares for the counting of votes on May 4, following the 2026 Assembly elections. Exit polls released after polling concluded have indicated a potentially tight contest, with a significant number of pollsters projecting an advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC), which has governed the state since 2011.
Looking Back: The 2021 Assembly Election
The previous Assembly election in 2021 saw Mamata Banerjee's TMC secure a commanding victory, winning 213 out of the state's 294 seats. This triumph marked her return to power for a third consecutive term, with the party garnering approximately 48 percent of the vote share.
The BJP emerged as the principal opposition force in 2021, making substantial gains by winning 77 seats. This represented a dramatic increase from their mere three seats in the 2016 election. The party's vote share also saw a significant jump, rising from 10 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2021.
Conversely, the Congress, which contested the 2021 elections in alliance with the Left Front and the Indian Secular Front (ISF), failed to secure a single seat. The Left Front also drew a blank, marking one of its weakest performances in the state's electoral history, as their support base continued to shrink.
2026 Exit Poll Projections: A Shift in Momentum?
For the 2026 elections, various exit polls have painted a picture of a close race, though a majority have given the BJP an edge. Agencies such as P-MARQ, Chanakya Strategies, Poll Diary, Praja Poll, and Today's Chanakya have forecasted the BJP either reaching or nearing the majority mark of 148 seats in the 294-member Assembly. Some of the more optimistic projections for the BJP include Praja Poll (178-208 seats) and Today's Chanakya (192 ±11 seats).
However, not all surveys indicate a clear BJP victory. People's Pulse, for instance, has projected a comfortable lead for the TMC alliance, estimating 177-187 seats. Other agencies like JVC and People's Insight have suggested the possibility of a hung assembly or an extremely close contest, reflecting the intense competition on the ground.
In terms of vote share, Peoples Pulse estimated AITC+ (TMC alliance) at 47.2% against BJP's 41.5%. In contrast, Today's Chanakya projected the BJP at 48% (±3) and AITC+ at 38% (±3), highlighting the variance in these pre-result assessments.
What Lies Ahead
The overall sentiment from the exit polls suggests that West Bengal could be heading for one of its most closely watched elections in recent memory. If these projections hold true, the state could witness its first change of government in 15 years, marking a significant political shift. The final results, to be declared on May 4, will confirm whether the TMC can defy the predictions or if the BJP will break new ground in the state.