Fears of a potential megatsunami originating from Spain's Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Islands have resurfaced, with some scientists warning of waves up to 65 feet (20 meters) potentially reaching the US East Coast. However, the scientific community remains divided on the likelihood and scale of such an event.
Understanding the Cumbre Vieja Volcano
Cumbre Vieja is an active volcanic ridge located on La Palma, one of Spain's Canary Islands situated in the Atlantic Ocean off Africa's northwestern coast. The volcano has a history of eruptions, most recently in 2021, when lava flows caused significant damage to homes and infrastructure on the island.
The primary concern centers on the stability of the volcano's western flank. Researchers have investigated whether a future eruption could destabilize this section, causing a massive volume of rock to slide into the Atlantic Ocean. Such a landslide could displace enormous quantities of water, potentially generating a tsunami.
The Megatsunami Hypothesis
The concept of a transatlantic megatsunami from Cumbre Vieja gained significant attention following a 2001 research paper by geophysicists Steven Ward and Simon Day. Their study modeled a hypothetical collapse of the volcano's western flank, estimating that between 150 and 500 cubic kilometers of rock could enter the ocean.
Under their most extreme scenario, waves reaching parts of the American coastline could measure between 10 and 25 meters (approximately 33 to 82 feet). Volcanologist Professor Bill McGuire has also argued for this possibility, citing geological evidence like large boulders in the Bahamas as potential indicators of prehistoric tsunamis from the Canary Islands.
Projections suggest that if such a major collapse were to occur, waves could reach parts of the US East Coast, including Florida and other coastal regions, within approximately nine hours.
Scientific Disagreement and Counterarguments
Despite these warnings, the possibility of a transatlantic megatsunami remains a controversial topic within the scientific community. The US Geological Survey (USGS), in a 2021 assessment, challenged the original megatsunami hypothesis. They argued that initial modeling relied on an unrealistic assumption: that an enormous section of the volcano would collapse as one massive, rapidly moving block.
“Subsequent investigations of underwater geological formations suggest that volcanic flank collapses generally happen in multiple stages rather than through a single catastrophic landslide.”
More sophisticated tsunami models, which account for wave dispersion, ocean-floor depth, and the interaction between landslide material and seawater, have also been developed. According to the USGS, updated simulations suggest that even a worst-case collapse of La Palma could produce maximum wave heights of approximately 1-2 meters (3-7 feet) along the eastern coasts of the Americas, significantly lower than earlier estimates.
Furthermore, geological evidence of deposits from such enormous transatlantic tsunamis has not been identified along the eastern coastlines of North and South America, casting further doubt on the extreme scenarios. While a volcanic collapse is a real possibility, scientists emphasize that the timing, scale, and eventual consequences remain highly uncertain, with a potential event being centuries or even thousands of years away.