Exit polls released on April 29, 2026, for the Kerala Assembly elections indicate a potential shift in the state's political landscape. The India Today-Axis My India survey projects a clear majority for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), signaling a strong challenge to the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
UDF Poised for Comeback
According to the Axis My India projections, the UDF is expected to secure between 78 and 90 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly. This forecast positions the Congress-led alliance for a return to power, potentially unseating the LDF, which is predicted to win 49-62 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA is projected to secure 0-3 seats, with others potentially taking a few.
These numbers, if they hold true on counting day, represent a significant boost for the Congress, which has faced challenges in other states. For the LDF, a loss would be a major setback, especially after its historic victory in 2021.
Kerala's Alternating Political History
Kerala has a long-standing tradition of alternating between LDF and UDF governments. The LDF, under Pinarayi Vijayan, defied this trend in 2021 by securing 99 seats, marking the first time in decades that an incumbent government was re-elected. A second consecutive win in 2026 would have further cemented Vijayan's dominance in state politics.
The UDF, spearheaded by leaders like V.D. Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala, campaigned vigorously on issues of anti-incumbency and alleged governance lapses, hoping to leverage the state's historical preference for political rotation. Meanwhile, the LDF highlighted its welfare initiatives and a perceived strong bond with the electorate. Chief Minister Vijayan, after casting his vote, expressed confidence, stating, "False propaganda cannot defeat the LDF… We are with the people, and the people are with us."
Understanding Exit Polls and Their Accuracy
Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters as they leave polling stations, gathering information on their choices and motivations. While they offer a directional indication of the election outcome, they are not definitive. Kerala, known for its sharp political swings, has a history of occasionally confounding predictions.
In the 2021 elections, most exit polls correctly anticipated an LDF victory but generally underestimated the scale of their win. Projections ranged from 104 to 120 seats for the LDF, with the UDF expected to get 20 to 36 seats. The actual result saw the LDF secure 99 seats, falling slightly below the higher end of projections but confirming the general direction.
With 26,953,644 eligible voters participating in the 2026 elections, the final turnout figures, combined with these exit poll predictions, will provide the clearest early picture of the state's political leanings ahead of the official counting day.