Exit poll results for the 126-seat Assam Assembly elections, which saw voters cast their ballots on April 9, indicate a strong showing for the BJP-led alliance. According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the ruling coalition is projected to secure a substantial win, potentially retaining power for a third consecutive term under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.
BJP Dominates Projections
The India Today-Axis My India poll forecasts the BJP alliance winning between 88 and 100 seats, far exceeding the majority mark. The Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi, is predicted to be a distant second, securing only 24 to 36 seats. In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to garner approximately 48%, while the Congress's share is anticipated to be around 38%.
Other pollsters largely echo this trend. C-Voter projects 85-95 seats for the BJP and 25-32 for Congress, while Today's Chanakya Matrize gives the BJP 85-95 seats and Congress 25-32 seats.
Leaders' Confidence Ahead of Official Results
Both Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi expressed confidence in their respective parties' prospects. Sarma reiterated his belief that the BJP would secure 90-100 seats, citing his personal history of increasing victory margins in previous elections. Gogoi, on the other hand, highlighted an increase in voter turnout compared to 2021 and claimed positive public feedback, expressing optimism for a Congress-led government on May 4th, the official counting day.
Factors Influencing the Outcome
Several dynamics shaped the electoral landscape in Assam:
- Delimitation: The 2023 delimitation exercise, which redrew constituency boundaries, is largely seen as benefiting the BJP. It reduced the number of minority-dominated seats from about 35 to 23, potentially consolidating the influence of indigenous and tribal populations for the ruling party.
- The 'Three Gogois' Factor: In Upper Assam, the combined efforts of Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dal), and Lurinjyoti Gogoi (Assam Jatiya Parishad) aimed to leverage traditional Ahom community loyalties against the BJP. However, the impact of the delimitation exercise also fractured the Ahom community's influence.
- Congress's Organizational Challenges: The Congress party faced significant organizational setbacks, including the defection of prominent leaders like former Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah and sitting MP Pradyut Bordoloi to the BJP. Additionally, the party's decision not to ally with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) this time also played a role.
- Riniki Factor: A pre-election controversy involving allegations by the Congress against CM Sarma's wife, Riniki Bhuyan Sarma, regarding multiple passports and significant assets, created a narrative against the Chief Minister, though the Sarma family initiated legal action in response.