Indian equity markets are bracing for a period of heightened volatility as exit polls for the assembly elections conclude, with the final results slated for release next week. Market participants are closely monitoring these domestic political developments, alongside significant global cues.
Market Performance and Analyst Insights
Despite some afternoon profit-taking, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher. The BSE Sensex settled at 77,496.36, marking a gain of 609.45 points (0.79%). The Nifty 50 also rose by 181.95 points (0.76%), closing at 24,177.65.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, commented, "Markets are expected to react to the domestic political developments, as exit polls after the second phase of state elections are due later this evening. Investor sentiment will be influenced by these outcomes, while the final results next week are likely to add to market volatility on Monday."
Beyond domestic politics, investors are also keenly observing the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy review. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements on inflation and growth outlook will provide crucial direction for global markets.
Sensex Outlook: Key Levels
According to Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, the 30-share Sensex has reclaimed its immediate breakout support zone, forming a bullish recovery candle on daily charts. This suggests a potential continuation of a pullback rally within a broader consolidation phase.
- Immediate Support: 76,900–76,800
- Stronger Base Support: Around 76,500
- Immediate Resistance: 78,100–78,300
Shah noted that a decisive breakout above the resistance zone of 78,100–78,300 could trigger fresh upward momentum, but until then, the Sensex may trade within a range, with stock-specific action dominating.
Nifty Outlook: Support and Resistance
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, observed that the Nifty 50 moved past its 50-EMA but failed to sustain above it on a closing basis. However, it held above the support level of 24,150 on the daily timeframe. De highlighted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing a bullish crossover, indicating potential shifts in sentiment. The upcoming BSE monthly expiry could also contribute to market volatility.
- Support Levels: 24,150 and 23,900
- Resistance Levels: 24,350 and 24,550
Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One, added that Nifty's price action remains confined between the 20 DEMA (support) and 50 DEMA (resistance). He identifies the 24,300–24,350 zone as an immediate hurdle. A decisive move above this band could push prices towards last week’s high near 24,600.
- Immediate Support: 20 DEMA and 24,000 (psychological level)
- Crucial Pivot Support: Recent lows around 23,800
Bhosale suggests that as long as these critical support levels hold, any dips in the market are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities by investors.