The stage is set for the declaration of results for Kerala's 140 assembly constituencies, with vote counting commencing on May 3, 2026. All eyes are on several high-profile battlegrounds where political heavyweights are vying for victory. The election primarily features a direct contest between the incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is also aiming to expand its presence across the southern state.
Key Battlegrounds to Watch
Among the seats drawing significant attention are Dharmadam, Nemom, Palakkad, Aranmula, and Peravoor, each presenting unique electoral dynamics.
Dharmadam
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, representing the LDF, is seeking another term from Dharmadam in Kannur district. He faces a challenge from VP Abdul Rasheed, fielded by the UDF. In the 2021 Assembly election, Vijayan secured a substantial victory, defeating Congress candidate C Raghunathan by over 50,000 votes.
Nemom
Nemom, located in Thiruvananthapuram, is a high-profile constituency known for its intense contests. CPI(M)'s V Sivankutty is engaged in a three-cornered battle against BJP Kerala President Rajeev Chandrasekhar and Congress candidate KS Sabarinadhan. Nemom gained prominence in 2016 as the only seat to elect a BJP MLA in Kerala. However, Sivankutty recaptured the constituency for the CPI(M) in the 2021 polls.
Palakkad
Palakkad is another constituency witnessing a triangular contest. The UDF has put forward film personality Ramesh Pisharody. He is up against BJP state general secretary Sobha Surendran and LDF-backed Independent candidate NMR Razak. In the 2021 elections, UDF's Shafi Parambil successfully retained the seat for a third consecutive time, narrowly defeating BJP's E Sreedharan by a margin of 3,859 votes.
Aranmula
Aranmula has also emerged as a keenly watched three-way race. Kerala Health Minister Veena George, the sitting MLA, is seeking her third term on an LDF ticket. She faces competition from Youth Congress leader Abin Varkey (UDF) and BJP veteran Kummanam Rajasekharan (NDA). In 2021, George won with 74,950 votes, securing 46.30 percent of the vote share, ahead of Congress candidate K Sivadasan Nair.
Peravoor
In Peravoor, the contest is between UDF's Sunny Joseph and former Health Minister KK Shailaja of the CPI(M). Joseph, a three-time Congress MLA, is working to defend his seat. Shailaja previously won this constituency in 2006 but lost to Joseph in 2011, who has held it since. Shailaja last won Mattannur in 2021 with a record majority before being shifted to Peravoor for this election.
Poll Projections Suggest Tight Race
Early projections from Today's Chanakya indicate a narrow advantage for the UDF in Kerala, forecasting 69 seats (with a margin of error of plus or minus nine) in the 140-member Assembly. The ruling LDF is projected to secure 64 seats, also with a similar margin of error, suggesting a highly competitive election. The BJP-led NDA is projected to win seven seats (with a margin of error of plus or minus four). In terms of vote share, the survey estimates 40 percent support for the UDF, 38 percent for the LDF, and around 20 percent for the NDA.