India's critical southwest monsoon, a lifeline for the nation's agriculture and economy, has been delayed from its expected onset date in Kerala. Originally forecast to arrive on June 1, meteorologists now predict the monsoon will reach the southern state later this week, likely on Thursday or Friday.
Reasons for the Delay
According to Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet, two primary meteorological factors are hindering the monsoon's progress. There is a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea and another over the Bay of Bengal, both of which are currently unfavorable for the monsoon's onset. Additionally, the movement of westerlies is not conducive to its timely advancement over Kerala.
Onset Conditions Not Met
For the monsoon to be officially declared, specific conditions must be met, including significant rainfall. Palawat explained that 60 percent of weather stations in Kerala, Karnataka, and Lakshadweep need to record at least 2.5 mm of rainfall for two consecutive days. This crucial rainfall criterion has not yet been fulfilled, contributing to the stalled progress.
IMD to Revisit Dates
Officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the monsoon trough remains stalled. The IMD considers this a delayed onset and is expected to issue a revised tentative date for the monsoon's arrival in Kerala soon. Conditions are, however, becoming favorable over other parts of the Arabian Sea, most of the Bay of Bengal, and some areas of Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the next three to four days.
No Link to El Niño
Despite concerns regarding global weather phenomena, Palawat clarified that the current delay in the monsoon's arrival has no connection to the upcoming El Niño event. He emphasized that the monsoon's behavior is primarily dependent on localized weather systems near and over India.