As India anticipates the official results on May 4, 2026, exit polls have offered a glimpse into the potential outcomes of the assembly elections across five key states and one union territory: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry. These predictions, though not final, provide early insights into the political landscape.
Assam Exit Poll Predictions
In Assam, a significant victory is projected for the BJP-led alliance (BJP+), with most pollsters forecasting between 75 and 100 seats. The Congress is anticipated to be a distant second, likely securing a maximum of 40 seats, while other parties are expected to make minor gains.
West Bengal Exit Poll Predictions
The fiercely contested West Bengal election sees varied predictions. A majority of pollsters indicate a win for the BJP over the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee. However, some surveys, notably People's Pulse and Janmat Polls, diverge, predicting another clear term for the incumbent TMC. Mamata Banerjee has publicly dismissed these exit poll results, expressing confidence in her party's performance.
Kerala Exit Poll Predictions
For the southern state of Kerala, exit polls suggest a strong resurgence for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The UDF is projected to secure between 78 and 90 seats. In contrast, the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to obtain 49 to 62 seats, with the NDA potentially gaining a few seats.
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll Predictions
Most pollsters foresee a decisive victory for the DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu. An interesting exception is Axis My India, which predicts a landslide win for the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by Thalapathy Vijay, projecting 98 to 120 seats out of the total 234 assembly seats. Other pollsters largely favor the DMK-Congress combine over the AIADMK and other parties.
Puducherry Exit Poll Predictions
In the union territory of Puducherry, a clear majority for the NDA is widely predicted across almost all exit polls. The NDA is expected to secure 16 to 20 seats in the 30-member assembly. The DMK-led alliance is projected to win 6 to 8 seats, with Thalapathy Vijay's TVK also making some inroads.
These exit poll figures offer a preliminary understanding of voter sentiment ahead of the official counting on May 4. The actual results will reveal whether these predictions hold true or if any surprises are in store for India's political parties.