A former US Department of Defense official, Michael Rubin, has issued a stark warning regarding Turkey's increasing strategic alignment with Pakistan. Rubin's analysis suggests that Ankara's developing military capabilities, notably a new long-range ballistic missile, coupled with its consistent support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, could significantly complicate India's geopolitical landscape.
Turkey Unveils New Ballistic Missile: The "Yildirimhan"
Turkey recently showcased its new "Yildirimhan" intercontinental ballistic missile at the SAHA 2026 Defence and Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul. Turkish officials claim the missile boasts a 3,000-kg warhead capacity and speeds of Mach 25, potentially giving it a range extending across Europe, Africa, West Asia, and India.
Michael Rubin argued that the missile's strategic intent appears to be directed towards India, especially given Turkey's existing NATO defense umbrella against threats like Russia. He attributes this development to the expanding geopolitical ambitions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom he describes as increasingly driven by an Islamist ideology.
Erdoğan's Stance on Kashmir and Ideological Influence
President Erdoğan has repeatedly raised the Kashmir issue on international platforms, consistently siding with Pakistan. In 2020, he controversially stated that "Kashmir is as close to us as Turkey," later calling it a "burning issue." India has firmly rejected these remarks, reiterating that Jammu and Kashmir is an internal matter.
Rubin further claimed that Turkey has been expanding outreach programs and scholarships for Kashmiri students, viewing this as part of a broader ideological influence campaign. This aligns with Erdoğan's worldview, which Rubin characterizes as combining "neo-Ottoman" and "neo-Mughal" ambitions, positioning Turkey as a global champion of Muslim political causes.
Ankara's Support for Pakistan During "Operation Sindoor"
Turkey's deepening alignment with Pakistan became particularly evident during "Operation Sindoor," India's recent military response to cross-border terror infrastructure. During this period, Ankara openly provided diplomatic backing to Islamabad, criticized India's actions, and called for restraint.
Pro-government Turkish media outlets also played a role, amplifying Pakistan's narrative on Kashmir and regional escalation. Indian analysts have increasingly highlighted expanding Turkey-Pakistan defense cooperation, which includes collaboration on drones, naval platforms, military training, and intelligence sharing.
Strategic Concerns for India
Rubin warned that while Turkey may not directly confront India militarily, its growing capabilities and ideological stance could enable it to shield Pakistan during future India-Pakistan crises. He suggested that Turkey's missile technology and perceived hostility towards India could significantly complicate New Delhi's strategic calculations during any future escalation tied to Kashmir-based terrorism.
India has not officially commented on Rubin's latest claims. However, New Delhi has consistently objected to Turkey's statements on Kashmir and has recalibrated its diplomatic ties with Ankara in recent years. Strategic experts believe the burgeoning Turkey-Pakistan partnership, coupled with Ankara's expanding defense capabilities, could increasingly impact regional security dynamics.