The global energy system has demonstrated unexpected resilience in the face of a significant disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows. While approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) typically transits the Strait, the crisis led to a peak disruption affecting about 14% of combined global oil and gas supply.
According to the McKinsey Global Institute, several crucial buffers prevented a deeper global shock. These include substantial inventories, the utilization of bypass pipelines, the availability of alternative supplies, and a notable reduction in global oil demand. This resilience is particularly striking given that the scale of this disruption was more than twice that of the 1970s oil shocks and over six times the peak impact experienced during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Buffers Absorbed Initial Shockwaves
The initial shock was absorbed through a combination of strategic measures and market dynamics. Of the 21.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil flowing through the Strait in late 2025, an effective supply-demand gap of 15.5 million bpd emerged after accounting for residual flows. This gap was addressed in several ways:
- Bypass Pipelines and New Production: Around 35% of the supply gap was covered by rerouting 4.7 million bpd through pipelines like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s ADNOC pipeline. An additional 0.5 million bpd came from increased production, particularly from Brazil, Kazakhstan, the US, and Venezuela.
- Inventory Drawdown: Strategic and commercial inventories contributed approximately 20% to bridging the gap, with countries drawing down about 3.5 million bpd from reserves.
- Reduced Consumption: The most significant factor, accounting for roughly 45% of the adjustment, was a reduction in oil consumption, totaling about 6.8 million bpd.
The global oil trade also saw significant shifts. China, for instance, reduced its seaborne crude and refined-product imports by over 40%, freeing up cargoes for other Asian markets. Meanwhile, the United States increased its oil exports by 2.2 million bpd, a 20% rise, supported by domestic production increases and inventory releases.
Thinning Buffers and Emerging Vulnerabilities
Despite this demonstrated resilience, McKinsey warns that these shock absorbers are nearing their limits. By late August, global inventories had seen a drawdown of approximately half a billion barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, for example, fell below 300 million barrels, indicating reduced capacity for future large-scale releases.
Refining capacity has emerged as another critical vulnerability. Gulf refineries have seen their output cut by more than a quarter, and an estimated 2 million bpd of Russian refining capacity was offline in mid-July. Inventories of refined products are also thinner and less interchangeable than crude stocks, posing a greater constraint.
The crisis presents a mixed picture: the global energy system proved capable of absorbing a major shock, but the buffers that enabled this resilience are now significantly depleted. Future energy security, McKinsey suggests, will necessitate a multifaceted approach, combining new supply sources, enhanced infrastructure for trade flexibility, robust inventories, increased electrification, and greater demand flexibility.