The cost of a home-cooked meal in India saw a significant rise in May, primarily driven by a sharp increase in tomato prices. According to Crisil Intelligence's latest Roti Rice Rate (RRR) report, the average cost of preparing a vegetarian thali climbed 5% year-on-year, while a non-vegetarian thali became 7% more expensive compared to the same period last year.
Tomatoes, a fundamental ingredient in Indian cuisine, experienced a staggering 57% price jump year-on-year, reaching ₹36 per kilogram in May from ₹23 a year earlier. This surge was attributed to a 3-4% decline in production, reduced summer crop acreage, and damage to yields caused by heatwaves in key growing regions. Month-on-month, tomato prices also increased by 23%, further straining household budgets.
Beyond Tomatoes: Other Factors Inflating Kitchen Budgets
While tomatoes were the primary driver, other essential kitchen inputs also contributed to the rising meal costs. Vegetable oil prices increased by 8% year-on-year due to ongoing global supply disruptions, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices rose by 7%. The combined effect of these increases amplified the impact of soaring vegetable prices, offsetting any relief from other food items.
For non-vegetarian thalis, the increase was even more pronounced due to rising broiler chicken prices. Chicken constitutes nearly half the cost of a non-vegetarian meal plate. Crisil reported that intense summer heat led to higher bird mortality, tightening poultry supplies and pushing broiler prices up by an estimated 9% year-on-year.
Onions and Potatoes: The Next Price Challenge?
Despite providing some relief in May, with potato prices down 14% and onion prices down 6% year-on-year due to robust rabi harvests and cold-storage liquidations, Crisil warns that this trend is likely to reverse. As the rabi harvest season concludes, higher-priced potato stocks from cold storage are expected to enter the market, driving retail prices upward. Similarly, onion prices could increase following an estimated 5% decline in rabi production this year, leading to tighter supplies.
Tomato prices are projected to remain elevated through the June-August period due to lower summer sowing and heat-related disruptions in northern producing states. This combination of expensive tomatoes, firming onion and potato prices, and high cooking fuel costs suggests that kitchen inflation could persist throughout the monsoon season.
A Glimmer of Relief from Pulses
One positive note for consumers comes from pulses, which saw a 2% decline in prices year-on-year. This stability was supported by comfortable domestic availability and duty-free imports of tur dal, which are expected to continue stabilizing supplies. However, the broader outlook for household food costs remains challenging, with many Indian families likely to continue feeling the pinch of rising thali costs in the coming months.