Indian equity benchmark indices are set for a higher open, signaling a gap-up start to Wednesday's trading session. This positive momentum follows a notable surge in GIFT Nifty Futures, which climbed 122.70 points, or 0.51 percent, to reach 24,221.50 on the NSE International Exchange. Despite the optimistic local cues, underlying market sentiment is expected to remain guarded, largely influenced by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Global Market Overview and Geopolitical Impact
Global markets presented a mixed picture, with Asian stocks largely rebounding after a sharp selloff the previous day. While South Korea's KOSPI dropped nearly 3 percent and Japan's Nikkei shed almost a percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index marched higher. US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday; the S&P 500 saw a modest gain of 0.21 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.03 percent. Conversely, the Nasdaq declined 0.22 percent, impacted by tumbling chip stocks ahead of major tech earnings reports.
Geopolitical concerns intensified after fresh attacks in the Middle East, disrupting a period of relative calm in the US-Iran conflict. Oil prices reacted sharply, with Brent crude futures jumping 3 percent to $86.80 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rising over 3 percent to $81.95. Gold prices, however, inched lower by 0.1 percent to $4,021.87 per ounce, while the dollar remained firm against other currencies.
Expert Insights on Market Direction
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that Indian equities are likely to remain range-bound with a positive bias. This outlook is supported by a perceived easing of geopolitical tensions in West Asia, following the US President's reiteration of a preference for diplomatic solutions with Iran, coupled with a continued decline in Brent crude oil prices.
Investor caution also stems from the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting, prompting participants to avoid aggressive positions, as highlighted by Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Mishra advises a selective, stock-specific approach with disciplined risk management until clearer market direction emerges.
FII-DII Activity
Provisional data from the NSE revealed that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks on Tuesday, offloading shares worth Rs 755.33 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, injecting Rs 1,664.16 crore into Indian equities.
Nifty50 and Sensex: Key Levels to Watch
The market demonstrated indecisiveness, hovering between the 23,950/76,700 and 24,050/77,000 price range, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. He suggests that a sustained move above 24,050/77,000 could propel the market towards 24,150–24,200/77,300-77,500. Conversely, a breach below 23,900/76,500 might accelerate selling pressure, potentially retesting 23,800–23,750/76,200-76,000.
For the Sensex, Sachin Gupta, VP - Technical Research, Choice Equity Broking, identifies immediate support at 76,200–76,300 and resistance at 77,200–77,300. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the rally towards 77,700–78,000.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, noted that the Nifty closed near its 50-EMA for the second consecutive day, indicating trader indecision. A decisive breakout above the 24,050 resistance could provide the necessary strength for the index to advance towards 24,500 in the short term, with support around 23,920.
Nifty Bank Outlook
The Nifty Bank index formed a small-bodied bearish candle, reflecting profit booking at higher levels and indicating weak relative strength and momentum, according to Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities. He places immediate resistance for Bank Nifty in the 57,200-57,300 zone, with a potential extension to 57,700 and 58,000 if this level is breached. Immediate support is seen in the 56,300-56,200 zone.
Bajaj Broking highlights the 100-day EMA at 56,660 as a crucial level. A decisive break below this could accelerate declines towards 56,000-56,200. On the upside, 57,050 serves as immediate resistance, with a sustained move above it signaling renewed buying momentum.
From a derivatives perspective, Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, observed that India VIX eased further to 12.44, suggesting subdued volatility and a lack of aggressive directional positioning in the market.