Recent restrictions on the US green card program could lead to an unexpected outcome: more American technology work moving to India. This is the perspective of Vineet Nayar, former CEO of HCL Technologies, who shared his insights following the suspension of several major IT outsourcing companies from the Program for Electronic Review Management (PERM) green card processing framework.
US Curbs on PERM Program
On Thursday, US Labour Secretary Keith Sonderling announced that several prominent IT firms, including Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro, HCL, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft, and Adobe, have been suspended from the PERM program. This action has raised concerns within the global technology sector.
Nayar, however, downplayed the direct impact of these suspensions, noting that Indian IT companies accounted for less than 2% of PERM certifications last year. He stated, "The direct impact may therefore be smaller than it first appears. But something more interesting is happening underneath."
A Shifting Paradigm: From Onsite to Offshore and Beyond
Nayar highlighted a historical evolution in the IT outsourcing model. Initially, Indian engineers traveled to the US to perform critical work for American clients. This evolved into the "onsite-offshore model," where much of the work could be done remotely from India. Nayar believes the industry is on the cusp of another significant transition.
"There is an irony here. In trying to reduce the movement of Indian talent to America, the US may accelerate the movement of American work to India," Nayar posted on social media. He clarified that this shift would not merely involve more coding and maintenance jobs.
Opportunity in Advanced Tech and IP Ownership
According to Nayar, the new wave of American tech work moving to India will encompass more sophisticated areas. He identified opportunities in architecture, product engineering, cybersecurity, AI implementation, industry-specific solutions, and ultimately, the ownership of products and intellectual property (IP).
He urged Indian teams to move beyond merely receiving specifications from American clients. Instead, they should actively participate in decision-making, redesigning platforms, and owning problems rather than just supplying engineers to solve them.
AI's Impact on IT Employment
Nayar also touched upon the role of artificial intelligence. For decades, growth in Indian IT business directly correlated with an increase in IT employment. However, as AI improves productivity, this relationship may weaken. Indian IT could secure more complex work and generate greater value without a proportional rise in headcount. This necessitates a new definition of success for the industry.
He concluded by emphasizing that the future of Indian IT depends on the capability of its talent, not just the cost. "Can we create architects rather than only programmers? Build products and IP here? Move more global decision-making to India? Create more value per person and therefore pay our people far better? Those are much bigger questions than how many visas America issues."
MEA Responds to US Remarks
Separately, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded to remarks by US Vice President JD Vance, who described H-1B visa holders as "indentured servants." The MEA called these descriptions "unwarranted and deeply offensive," highlighting the significant contributions of highly educated and skilled Indian professionals to the US economy and innovation ecosystem.