Economist Surjit Bhalla has stated that while India has made significant economic strides, its performance within the BRICS grouping is ultimately insufficient. Bhalla, a former Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for India, emphasizes that the bloc's overall growth is overwhelmingly driven by China, overshadowing contributions from other members.
China's Overwhelming Dominance in BRICS Growth
Bhalla's analysis, spanning 2011 to 2025, reveals that BRICS' share of global income rose from 21.9% to 28.9%. However, excluding China, the combined share of the other ten members actually decreased from 11.9% to 11.5%. China alone accounted for 72% of the entire increase in BRICS income during this period, boosting its individual share from 10% to 17.4%.
Within the original five BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), China's economic weight has intensified. Its share of the group's income surged from 54.1% in 2011 to 68.9% by 2025. Bhalla remarked that the grouping has become "more Chinese by every measure except people."
Trade Figures Mirror Income Trends
The trade landscape within BRICS tells a similar story of Chinese dominance. The bloc's share of world goods exports increased from 23% in 2011 to 25% in 2023. Yet, when China is excluded, this share actually declined from 12.4% to 10.1%.
China was responsible for 94% of the increase in BRICS goods exports over this period. Even after removing China and the four oil-exporting members (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran), the remaining six nations (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia) collectively maintained a stagnant 5.1% of world goods exports in both 2011 and 2023. Bhalla described this as the "cleanest number" and the "most damning," indicating a lack of significant independent growth.
India's Export Performance and Future Alignment
Despite being the second-best performer among the original BRICS members, with an annual growth rate of 5.2%, India's export progress has been modest. Its share of world goods exports increased only slightly from 1.71% in 2011 to 1.88% in 2023. In stark contrast, Vietnam's share jumped from 0.52% to 1.50% during the same period, with its goods exports rising from $93 billion to $345 billion, compared to India's increase from $307 billion to $432 billion.
Bhalla pointed out that a country with a fraction of India's population has nearly caught up in exports. He concluded that this is not a BRICS failure, but an Indian one, and challenges the notion that the grouping is central to India's economic future. Bhalla highlighted China's $112 billion trade surplus with India and its minimal direct investment ($2.5 billion compared to the US's $100 billion), suggesting India's interests are not aligned with a bloc so heavily dominated by China.