In his recent book, China's Wars, former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale offers a critical analysis of Beijing's foreign policy and its potential for renewed tensions with India. Gokhale argues that India must proactively build its military, economic, and diplomatic deterrence to prevent China from unilaterally altering the status quo along their shared border.
Gokhale refutes Beijing's claim that India's 'Forward Policy' instigated the 1962 Sino-Indian War, asserting instead that China initiated the conflict. He posits that China does not view India as a peer competitor, meaning New Delhi's interests are unlikely to receive equal consideration, nor will India's willingness to resolve boundary disputes significantly shift Chinese strategic thinking.
India Must Prepare for Prolonged Coexistence
According to Gokhale, India faces a "persistent Chinese overhang on national security" for the foreseeable future. He advises preparing for a prolonged period of armed coexistence, as the "era of peaceful coexistence is at an end." While Beijing has noticed India's progress and more confident stance on national security, China still assesses the threat from India as "relatively low." This perception suggests there is currently no compelling reason for the PRC to settle key concerns, including the disputed boundary.
China's Two Core 'Red Lines'
Gokhale identifies two primary national security concerns for Beijing, which he terms 'red lines':
- Survival and Continuance of the Communist Party of China (CPC): Ensuring the long-term grip of the CPC on power.
- Prevention of Western Interference: Blocking attempts by 'anti-China forces,' particularly the US, to suppress, contain, or sabotage China.
The former ambassador warns that Beijing's threat perception of India could escalate sharply if New Delhi is seen as siding with the US to interfere in China's peripheral affairs or joining Western efforts to subvert the CPC's power. India must therefore continually monitor how Beijing views its relationships with Washington and Moscow.
Why China May Avoid a Large-Scale Conflict
Despite these 'red lines,' Gokhale presents several reasons why China might avoid a large-scale military conflict with India:
- Strategic Objective of Neutrality: Beijing's overriding political objective has long been to ensure India maintains a neutral stance in superpower competition, preventing it from aligning with major powers against Chinese interests.
- Risk of Losing Prestige: China's leadership, particularly under Xi Jinping, might avoid a war with India unless absolute victory is assured, recalling Mao Zedong's principle of fighting no battle without certainty of winning. Gokhale notes that the India of today is not the India of 1962, and China knows a total victory is not likely.
- Reputational Damage: A war with India could damage China's reputation as a benign actor in the region, potentially pushing other neighbors to align with the US.
- Geopolitical Shift: A major conflict could inadvertently push India from a neutral posture into an alliance with China's principal adversary, the United States.
Gokhale emphasizes that the PLA's military coercion is principally driven by political, not purely military, objectives. While China is anxious about India's growing proximity to Washington, it has not yet conclusively determined this to be a geopolitical problem requiring coercive means. He concludes that if China acts as a rational actor, it will likely prioritize ensuring continued Indian neutrality.
"China is an opportunistic power," Gokhale cautions. "Should a geopolitical opportunity present itself for China to make quick and politically safe territorial gains that simultaneously deliver a strong political-psychological shock to India, it might not hesitate to take such an opportunity."
Therefore, while open war may not be Beijing's preferred option, India must remain vigilant and strengthen its comprehensive national power to deter any opportunistic moves by China.