Commercial shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz has experienced a dramatic slowdown, with daily vessel crossings plummeting from 93 to just 17 between late June and mid-July. This sharp decline, highlighted by new S&P Global data, underscores the significant disruption to global maritime trade amidst escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
Escalating Tensions Impact Critical Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly one-fifth of the world's oil supply typically transits, remains technically open. However, a series of military actions, reported missile attacks on commercial vessels, and renewed U.S. naval operations have led many shipowners to avoid the route. S&P Global's Commodities at Sea and Maritime Intelligence platforms revealed that vessel traffic, which hovered between 50 and 90 daily crossings in late June, fell to a mere 17 by July 13.
The report attributes this drastic reduction to deteriorating regional security conditions, including a third consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and fresh Iranian attacks targeting commercial shipping.
Shift in Vessel Composition and Iranian Exports
The nature of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also shifted significantly. On July 13, out of 17 transiting vessels, only two were classified as "compliant"—a bulk carrier and a container ship, both inbound. The majority of other vessels reportedly sailed close to Iranian waters, indicating a growing reluctance among international shipping companies to use the standard, more exposed routes.
Despite the overall slowdown in commercial traffic, Iranian crude exports have shown resilience following a U.S.-Iran peace memorandum signed on June 17. S&P Global estimates that 82.5 million barrels of Iranian crude successfully exited the Middle East Gulf by July 13, averaging 3.17 million barrels per day.
Renewed Blockade and Future Outlook
This recovery in Iranian exports, however, faces renewed pressure. U.S. Central Command announced the resumption of its naval blockade from July 14, raising concerns about stricter enforcement against vessels linked to Iranian exports. A previous blockade between April and June saw a sharp decline in Iranian crude shipments and a build-up of floating storage.
Iran maintains substantial logistical capacity, with 22 ballast crude tankers (36.4 million barrels capacity) positioned within the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, sufficient for approximately one month of pre-conflict export rates. An additional 15 sanctioned crude tankers (22.4 million barrels capacity) are stationed in the Arabian Sea, outside the previous blockade line.
Analysts warn that sustained military escalation and stricter enforcement of the renewed U.S. blockade could further reduce shipping activity, drive up freight and insurance costs, and heighten volatility in global energy markets, illustrating how geopolitical tensions can severely disrupt global trade even without a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz.