Foreign brokerage Nomura has reiterated its 'Buy' recommendations for three major Indian steel companies: Tata Steel Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, and Jindal Steel Ltd. In a report dated August 18, 2026, Nomura provided updated share price targets, reflecting a continued positive outlook for the domestic steel industry.
Positive Outlook for India's Steel Sector
Nomura's positive stance on the India steel sector is driven by several factors. The brokerage believes the industry is well-positioned to benefit from price hikes implemented in the late March quarter and through the June quarter of FY27. These price adjustments are deemed more than sufficient to absorb any cost inflation stemming from the West Asia crisis. Additionally, Nomura noted extended rebar recovery and strengthening flat pricing, contributing to the favorable market conditions.
Market Performance and Margins
Global steel prices showed firmness in the week ending August 14, with India's Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) prices demonstrating resilience. Domestic HRC prices improved by Rs 100 per tonne week-on-week, reaching Rs 58,050 per tonne. Rebar prices saw a significant rebound, gaining Rs 1,475 per tonne week-on-week to Rs 53,100 per tonne, following a prolonged three-month correction. The domestic flat-long spread remains positive, exceeding Rs 4,950 per tonne, supported by HRC prices' sustained strength over rebar prices.
In August, India's HRC spot margin stood at Rs 36,136 per tonne, marking an increase of Rs 1,416 per tonne month-on-month. While China's export and domestic HRC prices remained stable, European HRC prices held firm at EUR705 per tonne, with margins largely stable.
Impact of MMDR Amendment Bill 2026
A significant development positively impacting the mining industry is the recent passage of the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Amendment Bill, 2026. This legislation empowers the Central government to prescribe conditions governing state taxes, cess, and other levies on mining rights and mineral-bearing lands.
Nomura views this amendment favorably, as it is expected to enhance regulatory certainty and cost predictability for miners. It could also potentially limit incremental levies, although the precise extent of the benefit will depend on the rules notified by the Centre. Legacy coal and iron ore miners, including Tata Steel, NMDC, and Coal India, who were most exposed to potential liabilities under a 2024 Supreme Court ruling, stand to benefit from this amendment, as does Jindal Steel.
Specific Target Rationales
For Tata Steel, Nomura set a target price of Rs 240. This target is derived by applying a slightly higher than mid-cycle one-year forward Enterprise Value (EV) to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (Ebitda) multiple of 7.8 times on the new steady-state Ebitda projected for June 2028.
The brokerage also suggested a target of Rs 1,400 for JSW Steel and Rs 1,300 for Jindal Steel, reinforcing its 'Buy' recommendations across these key Indian steel players.