Leading financial brokerages, Nuvama Institutional Equities and YES Securities, have offered their analyses on the demerged entities of Tata Motors: Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPV) and Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Ltd (TMCV). Their reports highlight distinct growth trajectories and upside potentials for investors.
Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV) Outlook
Nuvama Institutional Equities anticipates a high single-digit domestic volume growth for TMCV in FY27. The brokerage projects double-digit EBITDA margins, potentially expanding into the teens during upcycles. Nuvama expects TMCV to increase its domestic commercial vehicle market share from 36% in FY26 to 40%, driven by gains across SCV, ILCV, passenger, and HCV segments.
Following the Iveco acquisition in Q2 FY27, Nuvama believes TMCV will focus on cross-selling opportunities, sourcing efficiencies, and R&D synergies. They forecast a 7% volume CAGR over FY26–28E, significantly boosted by a 48% CAGR in exports due to a large order of approximately 70,000 units from Indonesia. Nuvama maintains a 'BUY' rating with a 12-month target price of Rs 480 per share, suggesting an 11.11% upside from a recent closing price of Rs 432.
YES Securities also holds an 'Add' rating on TMCV, expecting market share improvements through product innovations across various vehicle segments. The firm noted upcoming digital initiatives, including Fleet Edge 2.0, an AI-led platform designed to enhance fleet uptime, service quality, and customer retention. YES Securities set a target price of Rs 462, implying a 6.94% upside potential.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) Prospects
For TMPV, Nuvama projects passenger vehicle volumes to grow at a robust 15% CAGR from FY26–31E, which could help the company gain 5–6 percentage points in market share, reaching around 20%. The brokerage expects TMPV's product portfolio to expand to 15 nameplates by FY31, supported by six new launches.
Nuvama models revenue and EBITDA CAGR for India PV at 21% and 39% respectively over FY26–28E, driven by strong volumes, PLI benefits, and an improved product mix. The firm retains a 'BUY' rating with a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) based target price of Rs 470 per share. This target implies a significant upside potential of 33.07% from a recent closing price of Rs 353.20.
YES Securities also remains positive on TMPV, forecasting the Indian passenger vehicle industry to grow to approximately 64 lakh units by FY31, supported by a steady 6–7% CAGR, premiumization trends, and strong SUV demand (over 60% of volumes). They anticipate rising alternative fuel adoption, pushing EV and CNG penetration beyond 45%. With cost optimization and improved brand perception, TMPV aims for FY31 revenues of Rs 1.4 lakh crore with 10% EBITDA margins. YES Securities maintains an 'ADD' rating with an SOTP-based target price of Rs 405, suggesting a 14.67% upside potential.
Conclusion: Higher Upside for TMPV
While both entities show positive outlooks, Nuvama's analysis suggests that Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) currently holds a higher implied upside potential of over 33% compared to Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV)'s ~11% based on their respective target prices and current market rates. Investors will need to weigh these projections against their individual investment strategies.