Following President Donald Trump's announcement of a US-Iran peace deal, set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, the critical Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen. However, industry stakeholders, including shipowners and traders, have met the news with considerable caution, citing a need for more concrete details regarding safe passage through the vital waterway.
The Strait's Strategic Importance and Conflict's Toll
The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point of immense global significance, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supplies traverse. It has been central to a 107-day conflict that severely disrupted international energy trade. Iran's control over the passage, coupled with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, led to widespread use of 'dark transits' and significantly curtailed normal shipping operations.
While President Trump urged ships to begin moving and allow oil to flow immediately after the Friday signing, practical and security concerns remain paramount for those who navigate the strait. Past agreements in recent months have often ended with Iranian forces firing on or seizing vessels, and lingering uncertainty about potential mines in the strait continues to complicate routing and insurance considerations.
Operational Hurdles and Waiting Vessels
The protracted conflict has left a substantial backlog of maritime traffic. Reports indicate nearly 600 vessels are currently stranded within the Persian Gulf, eager to depart, while hundreds of empty ships await access from the Gulf of Oman. This includes 98 crude tankers and 88 carriers loaded with dirty petroleum products.
Even with the theoretical reopening, shipowners face practical challenges beyond security. These include the necessary task of removing barnacles from hulls after prolonged inactivity and navigating intense competition within the narrow corridor once traffic resumes. On Monday morning, activity in the strait remained minimal, with only one liquefied natural gas tanker, the Disha, observed heading towards Hormuz.
What Comes Next for Shipping
Despite some oil producers finding limited ways to transit the strait with US support during the conflict, crossings remained a fraction of pre-war levels, which averaged 135 tankers daily. Industry experts anticipate that laden vessels will likely be the first to move out of the Persian Gulf once safe passage is confirmed. Subsequently, the more than 300 empty vessels currently waiting in the Gulf of Oman are expected to transit Hormuz to begin loading cargo in the Persian Gulf.