Indian stock markets experienced a subdued opening on Monday, with both the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty recording minor losses. The muted start was primarily attributed to a significant jump in Brent crude oil prices, which surged over 7% amidst heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding US-Iran peace talks.
At 9:16 am, the BSE Sensex was trading at 78,371.81, down 121.73 points (0.16%), while the Nifty stood at 24,288.55, a decline of 37.15 points (0.15%).
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Prices
The rise in crude oil prices stems from uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations. A second round of talks was scheduled for Monday, but Tehran reportedly rejected participation, casting doubt on the extension of a ceasefire deadline set for Tuesday. Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, highlighted that with roughly a fifth of global seaborne crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption carries significant price consequences.
At 9:18 am, Brent futures for June delivery were trading at $95.22, up 5.36%. Concerns escalated as Iran reportedly hardened its stance, closing the Strait of Hormuz again after a brief reopening, and threatening retaliation over a US seizure of an Iranian ship. This situation raises the potential for conflict escalation once the ceasefire ends on April 22.
Despite the crude spike, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted that market signals did not reflect renewed panic in the broader crude market. However, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst, warned that markets are likely to witness a volatile and uneven session, with sentiment swinging between relief and renewed caution, especially if crude prices sustain their upward trajectory.
Key Stock Movements
- HDFC Bank Ltd: Shares fell 1.13% to Rs 790.85. Despite a miss on net interest income (NII) and pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) in its March quarter results, the bank beat on opex and provisions, leading to higher profit. Some brokerages maintained 'Buy' ratings.
- ICICI Bank Ltd: The private lender saw its shares add 1% to Rs 1,361. ICICI Bank reported inline NII and PPoP for the March quarter, with profit after tax (PAT) exceeding analyst expectations due to lower provisions.
- YES Bank Ltd: Shares advanced 1.19% to Rs 20.44. This gain occurred even as JM Financial issued a 'Sell' rating with a 17% downside target of Rs 17, citing moderating recoveries as a major headwind for FY27, despite a strong 45% year-on-year jump in net profit for the March quarter.
- Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFS): The stock declined 2.03% to Rs 239. MOFSL retained its 'Buy' rating after mixed March quarter results, noting continued credit-led scale-up and ramp-up in newer businesses.
- OMC Stocks: Oil Marketing Company (OMC) stocks such as BPCL, HPCL, and IOC exhibited mixed performance during the session.
“Over the weekend, conflicting developments emerged, particularly with reports indicating that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed again after briefly reopening on Friday. This reversal has already triggered a rebound in crude oil prices, reintroducing concerns around supply disruptions and inflation,” said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.