ITC Shares Show Initial Rebound
After enduring a three-year bear grip, shares of ITC Limited are displaying early signs of recovery. The FMCG major's stock has surged above its 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day simple moving averages, indicating a partial near-term rebound. In the past week, ITC shares have climbed 3%, adding 0.55% over two weeks, despite trading close to their 52-week low recorded on August 31 this year.
However, the broader trend for the stock remains weak, as it trades below its 30-day, 50-day, 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages.
Factors Behind Recent Stock Pressure
Several headwinds have contributed to the prolonged pressure on ITC's stock. A significant factor was the Modi government's cigarette tax hike from February 1, 2026, which replaced the old compensation cess structure with a core GST increase from 28% to 40% of the retail price.
Additionally, subdued earnings performance has dampened investor sentiment. In Q1 FY27, consolidated net profit for ITC slipped 16.21% year-on-year to Rs 4,394.13 crore, primarily due to high input costs and increased tax burdens.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have also continuously reduced their stake in ITC over the last two years, with their holding declining from 40.5% in the June 2024 quarter to 34.2% in the June 2026 quarter.
Current Trading Status and Technical Indicators
In the latest trading session, ITC stock remained largely flat, hovering around Rs 266.45. The company's market capitalization stood at Rs 3.33 lakh crore, with 0.41 lakh shares changing hands, amounting to a turnover of Rs 1.09 crore.
Technically, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48.2, suggesting it is neither in the oversold nor overbought zone. Despite the recent uptick, ITC shares have seen a substantial decline of 27.17% in 2026 and 46% over the past two years, significantly below its 52-week high of Rs 426.5 reached on October 31, 2025.
Analyst Price Targets and Outlook
Brokerages hold varied views on ITC's future trajectory:
- Systematix has maintained a 'HOLD' rating with an unchanged target price of Rs 290. The brokerage cites subdued near-term cigarette volume demand and price-lags affecting profitability, suggesting the stock may remain range-bound. Systematix prefers alternatives in the consumer staples sector like Marico, Bikaji Foods, and Dodla Dairy.
- Macquarie has downgraded ITC from 'outperform' to 'neutral', setting a price target of Rs 330.
- Antique Stock Broking has a more optimistic outlook, assigning a target price of Rs 408 per share.
- Among global brokerages, Investec suggests a target price of Rs 308, while JPMorgan projects Rs 310.
- Conversely, 360 One has maintained its target price of Rs 440 on ITC stock, implying a potential upside of approximately 66.3% from current levels. This target is derived using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, with the brokerage noting ITC trades at around 15.2 times its estimated FY28 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.