Global investor and keen election observer Ruchir Sharma recently expressed his astonishment at the persistent economic backwardness of West Bengal, following an extensive trip across the state during its ongoing Assembly elections. Sharma highlighted that despite decades passing, West Bengal's per capita income rankings have remained stagnant, and in some aspects, even declined relative to other Indian states.
Decades of Stagnant Growth
Speaking to media, Sharma emphasized that while economic data consistently shows West Bengal's per capita income growth among the lowest in India for many decades, witnessing the ground reality underscored the severity of the issue. He pointed to districts like Murshidabad as examples of this entrenched lack of progress, suggesting these conditions could fuel anti-incumbency sentiments, though he described the election outcome as challenging to predict.
Sharma referenced the 2021 Assembly elections, where the Trinamool Congress secured roughly 48% of the vote and 215 seats, compared to the Bharatiya Janata Party's 77 seats with about 38% vote share. He noted that overcoming such a significant 10 percentage point gap in a single election cycle is a rare feat in India's electoral history.
Development Not a Decisive Factor?
Intriguingly, Sharma posited that economic development often does not serve as a decisive factor in Indian elections. He suggested a disconnect between economic growth and electoral outcomes, citing past analyses where even states achieving high growth rates saw incumbent governments re-elected only about half the time. This indicates that other issues frequently overshadow development concerns in voters' minds.
In West Bengal, Sharma observed that electoral campaigns are more heavily influenced by factors such as issues related to 'SIR' (likely referring to land reforms or identity-related concerns), appeasement politics, and concerns over infiltration. He noted a lack of concrete development agendas from either political side. Another significant element, according to Sharma, is the prevalence of 'giveaways' or direct money transfers to voters, a tactic he believes is increasingly adopted by governments nationwide and is evident in West Bengal as well.
The first phase of polling in West Bengal commenced on April 23, with the second phase scheduled for April 29. The final results are anticipated on May 4.