Indian equity markets are poised for a significant gap-down opening on Tuesday, signaled by a sharp decline in GIFT Nifty futures. The NSE International Exchange’s GIFT Nifty Futures registered a drop of 197.50 points, or 0.84 percent, settling at 23,264.50, pointing to a cautious start for domestic trading.
The negative sentiment is largely attributed to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the West Asia conflict, and persistently elevated crude oil prices. A delayed deal between Ukraine and Russia is also cited as denting investor confidence, further exacerbated by continued selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs).
Global Market Overview
Asian markets opened with caution on Tuesday, reflecting the broader global unease. South Korea’s KOSPI and Japan’s Nikkei indices both dropped up to 2 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng managed a gain of over 1 percent. In contrast, Wall Street stocks saw modest gains on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.09 percent, the S&P 500 up 0.26 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.42 percent, as investors monitored developments in US-Iran peace negotiations.
Other key global indicators show the US dollar index holding steady at 99.18. Bitcoin, a bellwether for cryptocurrencies, was down 0.2 percent at $71,232.83. Oil prices largely maintained gains from the previous session, with Brent crude futures inching up 0.06 percent to $95.04 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 0.18 percent to $91.99 a barrel.
Expert Insights and Key Levels
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that Indian equities are expected to remain range-bound with a marginal negative bias due to sustained FII selling and global macro developments. He advises focusing on stock-specific opportunities within the midcap sector.
Religare Broking's SVP of Research, Ajit Mishra, echoed concerns over FII selling following recent MSCI rebalancing-related outflows. He recommends a “sell-on-rise” approach for the Nifty, emphasizing disciplined risk and position management alongside sectoral trends.
FII-DII Flows
Provisional data from the NSE revealed that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks on Monday, offloading shares worth Rs 3,911.68 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support, emerging as net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,109.13 crore.
Nifty50, Sensex, and India VIX Outlook
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, observed that the market faced consistent selling pressure at higher levels, forming a bearish candle and a lower top on intraday charts. He suggested 23,500/74,500 as a crucial trend-deciding level for day traders. Below this, the correction could extend to 23,250–23,200/74,000-73,700, while a move above could see a bounce towards 23,650–23,700/74,800-75,000.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, anticipates bearish sentiment to continue, with Nifty potentially drifting towards the 23,200 level. Immediate resistance is pegged around 23,500. Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, identified immediate support for Sensex at 73,500–73,700 and resistance near 74,800–75,000.
On the volatility front, India VIX rose by nearly 2 percent to close around 16.50. Nilesh Jain, VP-Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, warned that a sustained move above the 17 mark could heighten market uncertainty.
Nifty Bank Outlook
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, reported that Bank Nifty remained under pressure, exhibiting a lower high–lower low formation. Key immediate support for Bank Nifty is identified in the 53,200-53,100 zone, with further weakness potentially leading to 52,700 and 52,300. Resistance is set at 54,000-54,100.
Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Nifty Bank formed a bearish candle, closing below its previous week’s low of 54,116, indicating a continued downward bias. The index is likely to consolidate between 52,500-55,600, with a breakout or breakdown signaling a clearer directional move. Key support rests at 52,700-52,500, while resistance is found at 55,600-56,000.