Shares of Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) have experienced a significant downturn, plummeting over 35% from their 52-week high in January 2026. Despite this decline, brokerage firm Anand Rathi maintains a 'buy' rating on the public sector undertaking (PSU) metal stock, projecting a robust recovery with a target price of Rs 715, suggesting a potential 46% upside from recent lows.
Strategic Expansion Driving Optimism
Anand Rathi's optimistic outlook for Hindustan Copper is primarily driven by the company's multi-pronged expansion strategy. A key component is the revival of the 50,000-tonne Gujarat Copper Plant. HCL has awarded a 20-year revenue-sharing contract to restart, upgrade, and maintain the facility, with operations anticipated to commence in Q3 FY27. This plant is expected to generate incremental revenue of Rs 110-Rs 125 crore for HCL annually at optimal utilization and current LME copper prices.
Mine Revivals and Capacity Boost
Beyond the Gujarat plant, Hindustan Copper is actively expanding its mining operations. The 0.2 million-tonne Kendadih copper mine has resumed operations, with plans to double its capacity to 0.4 million tonnes. Additionally, the company is evaluating the revival of the Pathargora block in Jharkhand and the Dikchu block in Sikkim. While these blocks may offer smaller production volumes, their high average ore grade of 3-4% could significantly offset lower output, supporting future expansion phases beyond 2030-31.
Financial Projections and Capital Expenditure
Anand Rathi forecasts substantial financial growth for Hindustan Copper. The brokerage expects domestic copper demand to more than double over the next decade, fueled by new-age applications. Consequently, HCL's revenue is projected to surge 3.3 times to approximately Rs 10,200 crore over FY26-31e, with EBITDA increasing 3.5 times to Rs 510 crore. For Q1 FY27, Anand Rathi anticipates revenue to cross Rs 850 crore, marking a 66% year-on-year increase, supported by factors like rupee depreciation, higher LME prices, and volume growth.
The company's capital expenditure program is also progressing as planned. Hindustan Copper has placed orders for a 3 million-tonne concentrator plant and production winders for its Malanjkhand Copper Project (MCP). This Rs 14 billion capex program is on schedule, with the shaft expected to be commissioned by April 2029, which should significantly boost ore volumes and help achieve HCL's Vision 2030 production targets.
Anand Rathi analysts highlight that their current estimates do not yet include potential volumes from the Pathargora and Dikchu blocks, suggesting further upside potential once these projects are fully operational.
However, the brokerage also identifies key risks, including volatility in commodity prices, potential delays in mining capital expenditure, undue delays in volume expansion, and changes in key management personnel from July 2026 onwards.