A recently signed mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan has been described as “more symbolic than substantive” by former Pakistan ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani. The pact, which was inked in Mecca on Friday, August 7, 2026, is not expected to evolve into a “Muslim NATO,” according to Haqqani.
Assessing the Pact's True Scope
Haqqani argued that a crucial element for a true military alliance—a common enemy—is absent among the three nations. While acknowledging the agreement could foster increased defense cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint production of munitions, he stressed that the differing adversaries of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia preclude a formal joint defense arrangement.
"The Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan Mutual Defence Agreement is more symbolic than substantive. A shared enemy is the first element of a mutual defence agreement, and that is absent here," Haqqani stated, adding, "The enemies of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are different."
He further clarified that the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” is better understood as a defense cooperation agreement rather than a full military pact, despite its stated aim to strengthen collective deterrence. The agreement includes a provision that an armed attack against any of the three countries would be considered an attack against all. However, the joint statement lacked specific commitments or clarity on how far each nation would be bound to military action in defense of the others.
India Raises Concerns Over the Alliance
The new defense pact has also drawn scrutiny from India, with former Indian ambassador Kanwal Sibal expressing significant concerns regarding its implications for Indian interests. Sibal highlighted the pact's unambiguous language, which designates an attack on one signatory as aggression against all, and questioned its potential meaning in the event of a conflict between India and Pakistan.
Sibal specifically asked, "Does this mean that if, in response to a major terrorist attack by Pakistan, India responds. Will this be considered an attack against Saudi Arabia and Turkey?" He suggested that India might need to strengthen ties with other regional partners such as the UAE, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Afghanistan, and consult with Iran.
Skepticism on Deterrence and Regional Dynamics
The former Indian ambassador also cast doubt on the pact's effectiveness as a deterrent against Iran, particularly in the context of heightened regional tensions and Iranian missile attacks on Gulf oil exporters. Sibal argued that if US power, including its nuclear arsenal, had not deterred Iran, then this new Sunni defense pact would likely not either.
He cautioned that by aligning against Tehran, the three signatory countries could inadvertently expose themselves to Iranian retaliation. Sibal further noted India's concerns about enhanced defense cooperation, citing Turkey's existing arms supply to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia's potential to provide financial resources.
Sibal concluded by calling for Saudi Arabia to clarify that the pact is not directed against India, emphasizing India's friendly relations with the kingdom and its non-threatening stance towards Turkey.