Brokerage firm Bernstein has issued updated target prices and valuation assumptions for several Adani Group companies, including Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Adani Power, Adani Green Energy, and Ambuja Cements. The revisions reflect new projections for port volumes, capacity additions, and financing estimates across the conglomerate.
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APSEZ)
Bernstein has maintained an "Outperform" rating on Adani Ports, raising its target price to Rs 1,973 per share. This upward revision stems from an increased FY27 port volume growth estimate, now at 12% from the previous 10%, driven by strong performance from international ports. Consequently, the brokerage increased its FY27 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 3% and lifted the target EV/EBITDA multiple to 16.5x from 16x.
Adani Power
Adani Power also retains an "Outperform" rating with a target price of Rs 220 per share. Bernstein utilized a discounted cash flow (DCF) method, factoring in an assumed 24 GW of capacity additions by FY33, followed by an annual 1.5 GW growth until FY60. A weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10% was applied in its valuation model.
Adani Green Energy
In contrast, Bernstein assigned an "Underperform" rating to Adani Green Energy, citing rich valuations, with a target price of Rs 980 per share. The DCF methodology for Adani Green incorporated existing and pipeline projects, alongside the company's projected market share in future sector growth. The valuation now accounts for lower contracted tariffs, a revised debt-equity mix, and an extended capacity addition timeline to 2030, including management's targets of 50 GWh of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and 5 GW of Pumped Storage Projects (PSP) by that year. These adjustments led to a 10% reduction in FY27 EBITDA estimates and a slight decrease in WACC to 8.6% from 8.8%.
Ambuja Cements
Ambuja Cements received an "Outperform" rating, with Bernstein setting a target price of Rs 486 per share. This target was derived using a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 16x on its FY28 EBITDA estimates.
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