The United States and Iran have halted military attacks against each other for a second consecutive day, marking the longest pause in hostilities since a recent two-week escalation. This significant de-escalation creates an opening for intense diplomatic efforts, with reports suggesting a potential agreement for Iran to manage vessel transit through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Diplomatic Space Opens Amidst Tensions
While Washington offered no immediate official explanation for the lull, UN Ambassador Mike Waltz indicated on Fox News that former President Trump was "giving talks some space." This confirms ongoing, high-level negotiations involving Oman and other mediators, which have intensified over recent weeks. Iran's army spokesperson also confirmed on state television that Tehran ceased its strikes following the US's halt in bombing. The recent flare-up saw Iranian counterattacks claim the lives of at least three US service members in Jordan and one in Iraq.
Hormuz Deal Takes Shape in Negotiations
A regional official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the talks, described the pause as a "positive signal" aiding de-escalation. Both nations are reportedly keen to return to an interim ceasefire deal established in mid-June. The current compromise under discussion centers on Iran overseeing vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz with fewer restrictions on ships. Iran officially confirmed on Sunday that discussions with Oman regarding safe passage through the strait are progressing. Tehran has consistently argued that the interim agreement grants it the right to manage shipping in the waterway, opposing US efforts to promote an alternative route near Oman's coast. Prior to the conflict, the strait was universally recognized as an international waterway.
Broader Context and Shipping Impact
The 60-day window for the interim deal is now in its latter half. However, major issues like Iran's nuclear program, which the deal was meant to address, have been set aside. Mediators are primarily focused on maintaining dialogue between the two sides. Despite the pause in attacks, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to a three-week low on Sunday, according to a US Navy-overseen maritime body. No new attacks had been confirmed in the preceding 72 hours.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leading to the Red Sea, remained stable, even after Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping last week. The US military affirmed its recently reimposed naval blockade against Iran continues, noting 12 commercial ships redirected, two disabled, and two boarded. US forces declared they "remain highly vigilant, focused, lethal, and ready."
Global Implications and Netanyahu's Visit
Global energy markets remain under pressure, with petrol prices continuing their upward trend. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet President Trump in Washington on Tuesday, their first encounter since February, weeks before the conflict with Iran began. Netanyahu expressed his full support for Trump's efforts to weaken Iran and end its nuclear program, stating, "If he can do so without returning to intense military fighting, that's fine. Why not?" He added that he would listen to Trump's plans, acknowledging it's largely "his decision." Netanyahu also issued a warning: "If Iran attacks Israel again, directly or through armed proxies, it will make a terrible mistake."