The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a critical alert, urging governments and communities worldwide to prepare for a potentially powerful El Niño event. This natural climate phenomenon, coupled with human-driven climate change, is expected to intensify heatwaves, droughts, and disrupt rainfall patterns across the globe, with significant implications for India's vital monsoon season.
High Probability of El Niño's Return
According to the WMO's latest climate update, there is an 80% likelihood that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August 2026. This probability escalates to over 90% for the phenomenon to persist through at least November. Most forecasting models indicate that this upcoming event is likely to be of moderate to strong intensity, building on already near-record global temperatures.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. While originating in the Pacific, its influence extends globally, altering weather systems, rainfall distribution, temperature extremes, and drought cycles. This warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically occurs every two to seven years and can last for nine to twelve months.
Why Scientists Are Concerned
Scientists are particularly alarmed because the warming beneath the Pacific Ocean surface has accelerated rapidly in recent months, creating prime conditions for El Niño's re-emergence. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the need for global readiness, warning that a strong El Niño could worsen existing droughts, trigger heavier rainfall in other regions, and elevate the risk of heatwaves on both land and oceans. The concern is compounded by the fact that any El Niño-driven warming will be layered on an already hotter planet, potentially intensifying extreme weather events worldwide.
Potential Threat to India's Monsoon
For India, a primary concern is the impact on the southwest monsoon, which is crucial for the nation's agriculture, water reservoirs, and rural livelihoods. Historically, many El Niño years have been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, though the relationship can be complex. The WMO's assessment raises fears that South Asia could experience below-normal monsoon rainfall if El Niño strengthens as predicted. Reduced rainfall could severely affect crop production, strain water resources, and heighten drought risks in vulnerable areas. This warning comes as parts of India have already endured intense heatwaves, with temperatures exceeding 45°C in several regions.
Widespread Global Impacts Expected
The effects of El Niño are diverse and geographically varied. WMO assessments suggest that regions such as parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia could face above-normal rainfall and increased flooding. Conversely, Australia, Indonesia, and several other areas may experience hotter and drier conditions. Experts also caution that El Niño can disrupt food production, fisheries, public health systems, and energy infrastructure, with droughts and floods often impacting agricultural output and warmer temperatures potentially increasing the spread of climate-sensitive diseases.
The previous major El Niño episode in 2023–24 was one of the strongest on record, significantly contributing to global temperature highs. The WMO projects that the coming years will remain exceptionally warm, and a renewed El Niño could push global temperatures even higher.