European officials are grappling with heightened security anxieties as French President Emmanuel Macron issued a stark warning: Europe should not expect advance notice if Russia shifts from hybrid operations to a physical attack. Macron's remarks on September 18 came after briefing political party leaders, highlighting an intensification of the Russian hybrid threat facing France and Europe in recent weeks.
He has ordered immediate preparations for a comprehensive plan to protect critical infrastructure, along with sensitive defense-industry and technology sites, from potential drone and cyberattacks. This call for vigilance follows a series of suspicious incidents across the continent, prompting governments to consider a more dangerous security environment.
Rising Hybrid Threats Across Europe
The concern extends beyond the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. European officials are increasingly worried that Russia might test NATO's resolve through drone or missile attacks on alliance territory, expanding its campaign of hybrid operations. Macron specifically referenced an August incident in Leipzig, Germany, where an explosive-laden drone, reportedly linked to Russia's GRU military intelligence, failed but could have caused significant damage.
Drone incursions into the airspace of several European countries also underscore the geographical reach of these threats, leading Macron to declare that “no one is safe.” He emphasized that Europe has already faced information operations, cyberattacks, and physical incidents attributed to Russia, none of which came with prior warnings. “The day we are attacked physically, we will not be warned,” Macron stated, urging Europe to raise its vigilance now.
Other incidents contributing to the alarm include:
- Railway disruptions in the Netherlands.
- A September 11 train derailment between Caen and Rouen, France, caused by an obstruction on the tracks.
- Investigations into fires near the Eurenco explosives facility in Sorgues, France.
While governments are careful to distinguish between suspicion and established attribution, the pattern of events points to a broad range of activities—including cyberattacks, sabotage, influence operations, and disinformation—intended to disrupt or intimidate.
NATO's Article 5 and Deterrence
For years, Russian cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage, and sabotage were largely treated as threats below the threshold of conventional warfare. However, recent incidents are forcing officials to consider the implications if such operations become more aggressive or cause significant civilian casualties. This is particularly sensitive for NATO.
A deliberate armed attack on a member state could trigger consultations under Article 5 of the NATO treaty. However, Article 5 does not prescribe an automatic military response in every circumstance, creating an element of uncertainty. This ambiguity is a key reason European governments are now placing greater emphasis on deterrence and preparedness, both militarily and civilly.
UK's Civilian Preparedness Drive
Britain has extended its preparedness efforts beyond military planning, actively encouraging households to maintain basic emergency supplies. This advice includes stocking food, water, first-aid materials, torches, and means to receive information during major disruptions like cyberattacks, power outages, flooding, or infrastructure failures.
While officials stress that this advice covers a wide range of emergencies, its timing is significant. A 2026 UK public preparedness survey revealed that 28% of respondents considered it likely or very likely that war could affect their local area within two years. Concurrently, the UK government has announced a £15 billion funding boost for its armed forces, allocating funds for drones, air defense, and increased weapons stockpiles.
Distinguishing Risk from Imminent War
It is crucial to differentiate between preparing for potential risks and announcing an imminent conventional war. European leaders are preparing for the possibility that Russia could expand its hybrid operations and potentially test NATO territory, not that a full-scale conventional invasion is on the horizon. Macron clarified that the immediate challenge is framed as a hybrid threat.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also warned about potential Russian drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine. Macron described Tusk's warning as serious, underscoring that Europe should not underestimate incidents like the one in Leipzig. The ongoing support for Ukraine remains central to Europe's security concerns, as leaders increasingly view the war's outcome as directly connected to the continent's long-term stability.