Bangladesh's foreign policy under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman appears to be shifting back towards the Islamist orientation traditionally associated with his Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), according to geostrategist Brahma Chellaney. Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, issued this warning on Monday, highlighting Dhaka's growing alignment with Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
A key indicator of this shift is Bangladesh's stated interest in the 'Mecca Pact,' a mutual-defense arrangement signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey earlier this month. Bangladesh's newly appointed state minister for foreign affairs, Humayun Kabir, expressed a "very positive" view of the pact, linking it to plans for stronger ties with "Muslim-majority nations." Chellaney noted this as the first formal signal of Bangladesh's interest in joining the alliance, which he termed an emerging "Sunni Quad."
Strategic Implications for India
A formal alignment between Bangladesh and the three countries would represent a fundamental structural shift in Dhaka's diplomatic, security, and economic relationship with India. Such a move, Chellaney suggested, could significantly raise New Delhi's concerns about strategic encirclement.
This potential shift coincides with Rahman's government also strengthening ties with China. Prime Minister Rahman visited Beijing in June, where he described China as Bangladesh's "most valued and trusted partner."
"The ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has long maintained close institutional ties with Islamist forces and has frequently leveraged anti-India messaging to mobilize its political base," Chellaney stated. "Viewed through that lens, Rahman's foreign policy appears less a departure than a return to the BNP's traditional strategic orientation."
Strained India-Bangladesh Ties
Relations between India and Bangladesh have remained tense since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina's government. Tarique Rahman assumed the premiership in February 2026. Despite New Delhi extending invitations twice, Rahman has yet to confirm his first official visit to India.
Concurrently, relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have rapidly normalized following Hasina's departure. Sajeeb Wazed, Hasina's son, has publicly warned India about this concerning shift. Speaking virtually at an event in New Delhi, Wazed claimed that foreign intelligence agencies, particularly Pakistan's ISI, had been given "free rein" in Bangladesh.
"What should concern India most is that Bangladesh has become another Pakistan on its eastern front," Wazed asserted, labeling Bangladesh a "failed state." He further cautioned that terrorists could increasingly enter India from Bangladesh instead of Pakistan in the coming decades, citing instances of groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Al-Qaida operatives openly operating in the country.