Shares of telecom operator Vodafone Idea are drawing renewed interest from brokerage firms, with Bajaj Broking predicting a potential 22% upside for the stock. This optimistic outlook comes as the company prepares to announce its Q4 earnings, expected in the coming month.
Vodafone Idea's Recent Stock Performance
As of Wednesday, April 22, 2026, Vodafone Idea shares saw a slight dip, shedding over a per cent to Rs 9.45, with its market capitalization falling below Rs 1.05 lakh crore. The stock has experienced a corrective phase over the past three to four months, tumbling more than 26% from its 52-week high of Rs 12.80. However, a recent 10% gain over the last month signals a potential positive uptrend in the short term, with the stock currently rebounding after consolidating near a crucial support zone.
Technical Analysis Points to Rebound
Bajaj Broking's analysis suggests that the correction in Vodafone Idea shares is over, setting the stage for a rebound. The stock is showing signs of recovery from the Rs 8-8.5 support level, indicating renewed buying interest. This support area is significant, aligning with multiple technical factors including the 61.8% retracement of its previous up move (August 2025 - January 2026, from Rs 6.1 to Rs 12.8) and its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the Rs 9 mark, historically a strong demand zone.
Furthermore, the stock recently broke out above a falling channel and has sustained above its 200-day SMA, signaling strength and fresh entry opportunities. Momentum indicators also support a positive bias, with the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) in an uptrend and holding above its nine-period average. Bajaj Broking anticipates Vodafone Idea resuming its uptrend, targeting Rs 11.6, which represents the 80% retracement of the recent decline from Rs 12.8 to Rs 8.1 over the last three months.
Q4 Earnings Expectations from Analysts
Ahead of the official Q4 results, other brokerages have offered their projections:
- Kotak Institutional Equities expects stable revenue but a slight decline in EBITDA (1.1% QoQ and 1.8% QoQ), attributing this to lower Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and continued subscriber losses. They forecast the end-of-period (EoP) subscriber base to decrease by 0.5 million QoQ to 192.4 million, with ARPU marginally decreasing to Rs 171 due to fewer days in the quarter, partially offset by subscriber mix.
- ICICI Securities projects Vodafone Idea's revenue to dip by 0.3% QoQ and 2.5% YoY to Rs 11,300 crore, primarily driven by ARPU and a likely dip in subscribers. Despite potential subscriber decline, they anticipate an increase of 1.1% QoQ in 4G subscribers, reflecting benefits from network expansion. EBITDA is expected to dip 0.5% QoQ to Rs 4,790 crore due to higher network costs. However, net loss could be lower at Rs 4,900 crore, thanks to a likely reduction in finance costs following government relief on AGR dues.
Diverse Brokerage Ratings and Target Prices
Analyst recommendations for Vodafone Idea shares are mixed:
- Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains a 'neutral' rating with a target price of Rs 10.
- ICICI Securities also holds a 'hold' rating, setting a target price of Rs 10.
- JM Financial has an 'add' rating with a target price of Rs 9.
- Conversely, Kotak and Emkay Global both have 'sell' ratings, with target prices of Rs 7 and Rs 6 respectively.