Indian domestic equities concluded a two-week winning streak on a weaker note, with both the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty recording approximately 2% declines over the past week. On Friday, the 30-share Sensex closed at 76,664.21, while the 50-pack Nifty settled at 23,897.95, both falling over 1% in the final session to end in the red.
However, Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange showed a positive trend, rising 180 points (0.75%) to trade at 24,134, suggesting a potential gap-up opening for Monday, April 27.
Global & Domestic Factors Influencing Markets
The broader market trend remained under pressure as an initial recovery attempt quickly lost momentum. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, cited "resurfacing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz" as key factors. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, noted that stalled US-Iran talks and crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel weighed on investor sentiment. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, highlighted Brent crude's nearly 8-10% surge during the week, surpassing the $105 per barrel mark, intensifying concerns about a widening import bill and inflation.
Domestically, Nair pointed to the RBI's concerns about early signs of an economic slowdown, softer forward-looking business confidence, and foreign brokerages' downgrades on the Indian equity outlook, which overshadowed an otherwise expansionary PMI reading. Mishra added that the Index of Eight Core Industries contracted by 0.4% year-on-year in March 2026, indicating weakness across key segments such as fertilisers, crude oil, coal, and electricity. Moody’s also revised India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast downward to 6%, citing weak consumption, slower industrial activity, and rising energy costs.
Looking ahead, analysts Vinod Nair and Ajit Mishra both identified the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision and its commentary as a critical global catalyst. Mishra also noted that the Q4 FY26 earnings season will gain momentum, with key companies across banking, financials, cement, metals, and consumption sectors scheduled to report results.
Key Levels for Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Sensex
- Nifty 50: Immediate support is seen around 23,500 (Mishra) and in the 23,600–23,400 zone (Ponmudi). Resistance is anticipated in the 24,200 to 24,500 range.
- Bank Nifty: Support levels are identified near 55,600, followed by 54,300 (Mishra), and in the 55,800–55,500 range (Ponmudi). Resistance is expected between 57,000–57,500 (Ponmudi) and at 57,700 (Mishra).
- Sensex: Initial support is near the 76,000–75,600 zone, with immediate resistance in the 77,500–78,000 range (Ponmudi).
Trading Strategy Ahead
Given the prevailing macro uncertainty and elevated crude prices, Mishra advised traders to "remain disciplined, avoid aggressive leverage, and prioritise capital preservation." He reiterated a preference for stocks in the energy and metals sectors, while selectively eyeing opportunities in FMCG and pharma. However, Mishra warned against fresh short-term buying in the IT sector. Ponmudi recommended a "disciplined approach with a focus on risk management" until clearer directional cues emerge in the market.