Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) experienced a marginal dip today as investors anticipate the conglomerate's second-quarter earnings report. Alongside the financial results, the Mukesh Ambani-led company's board is set to deliberate on a significant fundraise proposal.
Anticipated Q2 Performance
Analysts project RIL to report robust consolidated net profit growth of approximately 18% year-on-year for the September quarter, with consolidated sales expected to rise by 23.21%. This optimistic outlook is largely attributed to strong refining margins, bolstered by a windfall tax exemption for RIL's special economic zone refinery, which is seen as a key driver for the Q2 figures.
Consensus estimates suggest RIL's Q2 net profit could reach around Rs 21,367 crore, based on a mean of nine analyst forecasts. Revenue is pegged at Rs 3.13 lakh crore, according to Bloomberg data.
Segmental Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts
- Oil to Chemicals (O2C): Revenue estimated at Rs 1.62 lakh crore; EBITDA at Rs 16,434 crore.
- Retail: Revenue pegged at Rs 91,966 crore; EBITDA at Rs 6,593 crore.
- Digital Services: Revenue estimated at Rs 41,213 crore; EBITDA at Rs 18,848 crore.
- Oil & Gas: Revenue estimated at Rs 5,699 crore; EBITDA at Rs 4,536 crore.
Fundraise Through Debentures
Adding to the market's focus, RIL's board will consider a proposal to raise capital through the issuance of listed, secured or unsecured, redeemable non-convertible debentures. This fundraise would be conducted on a private placement basis, potentially in multiple tranches.
Analyst Insights and Segment Drivers
Several institutional equities firms have weighed in on RIL's prospects:
- Nuvama: Predicts a strong 17% YoY rise in RIL’s consolidated EBITDA, primarily driven by robust performance in the O2C and Digital segments. O2C EBITDA may see a 38% YoY growth due to strong gasoil and ATF spreads, increased throughput, and higher ethane imports, despite some offsetting factors like fuel retailing losses. Digital EBITDA is expected to climb 16% on higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and subscriber additions. Retail EBITDA, however, might see a 1% YoY fall due to a higher base and the impact of the RCPL demerger. Oil & Gas EBITDA could decline 6% YoY due to an 8% drop in KG-D6 output and an 11% fall in gas realization.
- Kotak Institutional Equities: Highlights that RIL's Q2 results will likely benefit from strong SEZ refinery earnings, absence of windfall tax impact, a boost from US ethane-based petrochemicals, and a weaker rupee.
- Elara Securities: Anticipates an 11% YoY growth in RIL consolidated EBITDA, with Digital Services (telecom) EBITDA growing 15%, oil-to-chemicals 22%, and E&P EBITDA 15%. Retail EBITDA is projected to drop 5%. Elara estimates RIL's Q2FY27E Gross Refining Margin (GRM) at $25 per barrel, significantly up from an estimated $11 per barrel in Q2FY26.
As the company prepares for its official announcement, the market remains keenly focused on both the financial performance and the strategic fundraising initiative.