Foreign brokerage Nomura has commenced coverage on Jio Platforms Ltd. with a 'Buy' rating, setting a target price of Rs 1,340. This valuation, based on 12 times estimated December 2028 Ebitda, suggests a potential 20% upside from the company's initial public offering (IPO) price of Rs 1,119. The move comes as Jio Platforms prepares for its listing as India's largest IPO, with grey market premiums hinting at a 22% listing pop.
Nomura's optimistic outlook is largely driven by the anticipated conclusion of Jio's substantial 5G investment cycle. The brokerage forecasts a significant reduction in capital expenditure, projecting it to fall to 23% of revenue in fiscal year 2026 from 35% in fiscal year 2025. This shift is expected to free up considerable cash flow, rapidly improving the company's balance sheet. Nomura predicts that Jio Platforms will achieve a net debt-free status by FY29, a sharp improvement from a net debt/equity ratio of 0.56x in FY24, falling to 0.37x by FY26.
Market Leadership and ARPU Growth
As India's largest telecom operator, Jio Platforms commanded a 41.7% wireless subscriber market share (excluding M2M) as of August 2026, according to TRAI. The company boasts the widest 5G coverage, highest data usage per subscriber (27% more than Airtel), and the lowest churn rate among its competitors at 1.6% per month. Nomura believes these strengths position Jio well to close its average revenue per user (ARPU) gap with Bharti Airtel.
An immediate catalyst for higher ARPU could be a projected 15% industry-wide tariff hike in November–December 2026. In the medium to long term, Jio is expected to pursue tariff adjustments through strategies such as moving from flat unlimited data bundles to tiered pricing, or enhancing premium offerings via network slicing on its 5G infrastructure.
Expanding Fixed Broadband and Technological Edge
Jio's fixed broadband segment has also seen robust growth, reaching 2.86 crore subscribers by June 2026, significantly outpacing Airtel's 1.47 crore. This expansion is largely attributed to Jio's aggressive Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and Unlicensed Band Radio (UBR)-based rollout strategy. With India's home broadband penetration currently at just 21% compared to a global average of over 70%, Nomura sees an addressable market of 30 crore households, providing a decade-long growth runway.
The brokerage highlights Jio's capital-efficient FWA model, which leases Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) from third parties, avoiding the sunk costs associated with Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) where a quarter of home passes do not convert into subscribers.
Global Ambitions with Indigenous 5G Technology
Jio has developed an end-to-end proprietary 5G stack, encompassing core network, devices, and OSS/BSS, making India only the fifth country globally with indigenous 5G capabilities. Furthermore, its proprietary UBR technology is unique worldwide, opening avenues for licensing deals with international telecom operators. Nomura reports that Jio is initially targeting up to 12 strategic partnerships, aiming to access 150 crore potential users across key markets including the US, Germany, South America, East Asia, and Africa.