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MCX Shares Jump 3% on SEBI Proposal to Allow FPIs in Commodity Derivatives

· · 2 min read

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) shares rose 3% after a SEBI proposal to allow Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in non-cash-settled commodity derivatives. Analysts from Jefferies and Morgan Stanley foresee increased market participation and earnings growth.

Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) advanced by 3% in Wednesday's trading session, extending its rally for the third consecutive day. The surge follows a significant proposal from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to permit Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to participate in non-cash-settled, non-agricultural commodity derivatives.

This regulatory development is widely anticipated to broaden market participation and significantly boost MCX's performance, according to analysts cited by Bloomberg from firms like Morgan Stanley and Jefferies.

Analyst Projections for MCX

Following the news, MCX stock climbed 2.73% to reach a high of Rs 2,965 on the BSE. Jefferies analyst Supratim Datta indicated that similar FPI participation in non-cash-settled contracts could add approximately 3% to MCX's Profit After Tax (PAT). Datta also highlighted the potential for commodity index options like Bulldex and Metldex, which currently have minimal volumes, to contribute an additional 10% to PAT if they achieve 10% of monthly equity Average Daily Turnover (ADTO) within three years. Jefferies maintains a 'buy' rating on MCX with a target price of Rs 3,600.

Morgan Stanley views SEBI's proposal as a positive catalyst for the market. The firm expects MCX to trade at a 20% premium to its historical average, driven by robust trading turnover in recent months. Morgan Stanley holds an 'Overweight' rating on MCX, setting a target price of Rs 3,665, based on 40 times its March 2028 EPS estimates. Key downside risks identified by Morgan Stanley include adverse regulatory changes, a strong rally in equity markets, and a sharp decline in trading turnover.

Separately, JPMorgan has set a target price of Rs 3,500 for MCX shares.

Market Performance Context

The 12-month Bloomberg consensus target for MCX stands at Rs 3,304, implying an 11.8% potential upside from current levels. MCX shares have demonstrated strong performance in 2026, rising 34% year-to-date, in stark contrast to an 8.7% drop in the broader BSE Sensex during the same period.

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