The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is poised to enter a new phase as some of the world's most closely watched technology companies prepare to tap public markets. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are reportedly gearing up for initial public offerings (IPOs), potentially setting the stage for some of the largest tech listings in U.S. history.
The Trillion-Dollar IPO Wave
OpenAI and Anthropic, leaders in the AI sector, have both submitted confidential filings for U.S. IPOs. OpenAI is reportedly targeting a valuation approaching the $1 trillion mark, while Anthropic recently secured fresh capital in a funding round valuing the company at nearly $965 billion.
Elon Musk's SpaceX is also preparing for its public debut, with an even more ambitious target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. If achieved, this figure would make it one of the most valuable companies ever to go public, potentially surpassing Saudi Aramco's record-setting 2019 offering.
Investor Caution and Valuation Gaps
Despite the excitement surrounding these potential IPOs, analysts are raising concerns. The unprecedented capital infusion into AI and frontier technology companies has led some to question whether current expectations are realistic. A report in The Indian Express highlights anxieties that private market valuations may have become disconnected from underlying business fundamentals.
Morningstar analysts, for instance, peg SpaceX's fair value at roughly $780 billion—less than half of its reported IPO target. The research firm suggests investors might be overvaluing future growth opportunities, particularly those tied to largely unproven AI-related ventures. Morningstar expressed uncertainty about SpaceX's long-term competitive advantages, especially concerning its recently acquired AI businesses, noting significant execution risks and the potential for value destruction if commercial opportunities fail to materialize as expected.
SpaceX's Ambitious Vision and AI Infrastructure
Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has expanded significantly beyond rocket launches. Today, it operates in reusable space transportation, satellite-based internet services via Starlink, and emerging AI infrastructure. Management estimates a total addressable market exceeding $28 trillion, with approximately $26.5 trillion linked directly or indirectly to AI opportunities.
A key driver for SpaceX's bullish valuation case is its ambition to become a major provider of computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Morningstar estimates the company could account for 4% to 21% of global computing capacity by 2040. However, analysts remain divided on how much these future opportunities should impact current valuation. Morningstar does not currently view Musk's AI venture, Grok, as a leading AI platform globally, instead emphasizing the utilization rates of large-scale computing facilities like Colossus I and II as primary profit drivers.
Lessons from Tesla, But Key Differences
The debate around SpaceX's valuation echoes the skepticism that once surrounded Tesla's 2010 IPO. Many questioned Tesla's valuation given its limited production and uncertain profitability. Tesla, however, exceeded expectations and transformed the automotive industry.
A crucial distinction exists: Tesla's valuation was rooted in a tangible product and a clear electric vehicle market. In contrast, critics argue that a substantial portion of SpaceX's proposed valuation depends on future assumptions regarding Starlink's expansion, AI infrastructure demand, and emerging technologies whose economic viability remains uncertain.
As Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX move closer to public markets, investors face a critical question: do these high valuations reflect genuine long-term growth potential, or are they a symptom of excessive optimism fueled by the AI revolution? The answer will undoubtedly shape the success of these IPOs and the broader trajectory of global technology markets.