India is expected to end July 2026 with near-normal rainfall, offering a much-needed respite after earlier dry spells. However, the country's critical southwest monsoon season is still projected to conclude with a 15% overall rainfall deficit, as reported by the private weather agency Skymet.
Fluctuating July Showers Offer Mixed Relief
The month of July began on a promising note, with intense showers during its first week significantly reducing the seasonal rainfall deficit from an alarming 40% down to 14%. This initial progress was largely undone by a prolonged dry spell in the second week, which saw the seasonal deficit rebound to 24%.
Relief returned between July 21 and July 24, as widespread rainfall helped to erase the monthly shortfall for July. This recent wet period brought the overall seasonal deficit back down to 15%, a level Skymet expects to hold until the end of the month. The agency forecasts approximately 9 to 9.5 mm of rainfall per day for the remaining days of July.
Outlook for the Second Half: El Niño and IOD Key
Despite the improved rainfall performance in July, Skymet indicates there are no strong indicators that the persistent 15% seasonal deficit will be recovered during the latter half of the monsoon season. The agency emphasizes that future rainfall patterns will heavily depend on the evolving strength of the El Niño phenomenon and the development of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
A clearer picture regarding the seasonal rainfall outlook is anticipated during the first week of August, when these major climate drivers may show more definitive trends.
Regional Rainfall Distribution Expected
Looking ahead for the next ten days, Skymet predicts a relatively well-distributed rainfall pattern, both spatially and temporally, across East, Northeast, and Northwest India. This suggests these regions may experience more consistent and widespread precipitation.
Conversely, central India, including states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, is expected to endure a weaker phase of the monsoon. Similarly, South Peninsular India, particularly its interior and southeastern parts, is likely to remain largely rain-deficient, with no significant rainfall spells forecast for the period.
Current meteorological conditions, including a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, are helping to prevent any major shortfall in rainfall during the final days of July.