Indian domestic air passenger traffic experienced a 2% year-on-year decline in April 2026, with an estimated 14.08 million travelers taking to the skies. This figure represents a slight decrease from 14.31 million passengers recorded in April 2025, and a 2% drop compared to 14.37 million in March 2026, as reported by credit rating agency ICRA.
Impact of Rising Jet Fuel Prices
The primary driver behind this downturn appears to be the significant increase in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices. While ATF prices remained stable month-on-month in May 2026, they surged by 23.5% on a year-on-year basis. This follows an 18.2% year-on-year increase in April 2026, largely influenced by the ongoing West Asian conflict which has firmed up crude oil prices globally.
In response to these elevated operational costs, major Indian carriers like Air India and IndiGo have announced further reductions in their domestic operations. These capacity cuts are scheduled between June 1, 2026, and August 31, 2026, signaling a challenging period for the aviation sector.
Capacity and Load Factors
Airline capacity deployment in April 2026 was 0.6% lower than in April 2025 and saw a 1.4% month-on-month decrease from March 2026. The domestic aviation industry operated at an estimated Passenger Load Factor (PLF) of 85.9% in April 2026. This is a slight dip from 86.8% in April 2025 but an improvement from 83.4% in March 2026.
Broader Trends in Indian Aviation
Despite the recent monthly dip, the overall domestic air passenger traffic for the fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) stood at 167.74 million, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1.4%. This performance aligns with ICRA's earlier estimates of 0-3% growth for the period.
Conversely, international air passenger traffic for Indian carriers showed a 3.9% growth, reaching 35 million in FY2026. However, this was lower than ICRA's pre-conflict estimate of 7-9% growth, indicating that global geopolitical events are also influencing the broader aviation landscape for Indian airlines.