Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) is scheduled to release its audited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, on Monday, May 18. The state-run refiner's board will also convene to approve these financials and consider the declaration of a final dividend for FY26.
Analysts Forecast Sequential Profit Dip
Market analysts are largely predicting a sequential decline in IOC's bottom line for Q4 FY26. This is primarily attributed to severe pressure on marketing margins, according to preview notes from brokerages like JM Financial and PL Capital.
- JM Financial projects IOC's Q4 sales to reach Rs 2.70 lakh crore, representing a 16.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase. However, they estimate a 6.7% QoQ drop in EBITDA to Rs 19,436 crore and a 9.8% sequential dip in profit after tax (PAT) to Rs 10,940 crore.
- PL Capital offers a more conservative outlook, forecasting Q4 EBITDA at Rs 16,140 crore, a 24.2% QoQ decline, and PAT at Rs 8,640 crore, down 31.3% QoQ.
Marketing Margins Under Severe Pressure
A key factor in the anticipated profit decline is the intense pressure on marketing margins. PL Capital expects these margins to remain negative at approximately Rs 1.5 per litre. This situation is driven by elevated crude oil prices, reportedly exacerbated by the US-Iran conflict, coupled with continued retail price controls, leading to higher under-recoveries for the company.
JM Financial noted a sharp plunge in marketing margins from Rs 5.2 per litre in the previous quarter to Rs 1.7 per litre in Q4. This significant reduction is primarily linked to a QoQ spike in crude prices, denominated in rupee terms, further compounded by supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Stock Performance Leading Up to Results
Ahead of the results, IOC's stock has experienced a downturn, declining approximately 22% over the last six months. In the most recent trading session on Friday, the counter closed 4.06% lower at Rs 134.55 per share on the BSE.