A recent report by Goldman Sachs highlights a significant shift in the global steel market, with India emerging as a robust growth engine while China's production faces sustained pressure. The firm's "Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer - May Update" detailed accelerating growth in India's crude steel output and a continued decline in China's.
India's Steel Sector Surges
India solidified its position as one of the world's fastest-growing steel markets. Goldman Sachs reported that India's crude steel production accelerated to an impressive 11 percent year-on-year in March. This follows a 10 percent growth rate for the year-to-date period and 7 percent growth observed in February, showcasing consistent upward momentum.
China's Production Under Pressure
Conversely, China's steel production continued its downward trend. Data from the first two weeks of May showed China's steel output was down 3.2 percent year-on-year compared to the same period last year. Despite Beijing's long-term plans for capacity cuts and industry reforms, Goldman Sachs noted a "delayed execution in 2026E" regarding both capacity reduction and production discipline, hindering efforts to curb excess supply.
While China's property market remains weak, infrastructure investment (excluding water and power supply) showed resilience, rising 8.9 percent year-on-year during the first three months of 2026. Manufacturing activity also improved in March, though construction activity softened, indicating uneven demand across different steel-consuming sectors.
Global Price Trends and Other Regions
The report also tracked global steel prices, which generally climbed across major markets in April and early May. Brazil emerged as the strongest-performing region, leading the surge in hot rolled coil (HRC) prices with a 10 percent month-on-month rise in April. Japan followed with a 6.5 percent increase, and China saw a 2.9 percent rise.
Year-to-date, Brazil's HRC steel price performance has been exceptional, up 21 percent, with the US also seeing strong gains at 15 percent. Global long steel prices also recorded significant increases in April, with Brazil again leading a 12 percent month-on-month jump in rebar prices, followed by Europe at 6.9 percent and the Black Sea region at 6.1 percent.
Elsewhere, Europe's crude steel production increased 16 percent month-on-month in March but remained down 3 percent both year-on-year and year-to-date. In the United States, average weekly steel production rose 3 percent month-on-month in April, with utilization rates averaging 79.6 percent, indicating an improving market.
Outlook for Steel Markets
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs projects relatively stable steel prices across major global markets through the remainder of 2026. The report anticipates that US steel prices will maintain a stronger position compared to those in Europe, China, and Brazil, reflecting ongoing regional dynamics and demand conditions.