Indian equity markets are poised for a flat start on Thursday, with GIFT Nifty Futures indicating a cautious tone. This muted opening comes despite gains on Wall Street, as investors weigh concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, persistently high crude oil prices, and a weakening Indian rupee.
Global Cues and Commodity Trends
On Wednesday, Wall Street stocks advanced, buoyed by softer-than-expected inflation data and a strong start to the quarterly earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all registered gains. However, Asian markets presented a mixed picture on Thursday, with South Korea's KOPSI crashing over 7% and Japan's Nikkei down 3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng managed to inch higher.
Meanwhile, Brent crude futures continued their ascent, climbing 0.6% to $85.45 a barrel as hostilities intensified in the Middle East. The US dollar index remained steady at 100.48, while gold held firm at $4,055 an ounce. Analysts suggest that easing US inflation concerns have improved global risk sentiment, but domestic factors like crude prices and geopolitical risks are capping upside for Indian equities.
FII-DII Activity and Technical Outlook
Provisional data indicates that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of Indian stocks on Wednesday, offloading shares worth Rs 735.83 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, injecting Rs 704.93 crore into the market.
Nifty50 and Sensex
Technically, a Doji candle on daily charts suggests indecisiveness in the market. For Nifty50, the 24,200 / 77,500 zone acts as a key resistance. A break above this could push the index towards 24,300-24,350. Conversely, the 24,000 / 77,000 level is a crucial support. A decisive move below this could accelerate selling pressure, potentially retesting the 50-day Simple Moving Average around 23,800-23,750.
The Sensex continues to trade above its 20-Day and 50-Day Exponential Moving Averages, indicating a constructive short-term trend despite intraday volatility. Immediate support for Sensex is seen between 76,500–76,800, with 77,800–78,000 acting as key resistance.
Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank has been consolidating within a 965-point range. The formation of a small-bodied candle with an upper wick highlights an inability to sustain higher levels, indicating selling pressure near resistance. Immediate support for Bank Nifty is in the 57,300-57,200 zone. A sustained move below this could lead to weakness towards 56,800 and 56,400.
On the upside, immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 58,200-58,300 zone. A decisive close above 58,700 could confirm a breakout from consolidation, potentially triggering a rally towards 59,300 and even 60,000 in the coming weeks. Major support is at 56,500, where the 20-week and 50-week EMAs converge.