Indian equity markets are anticipated to open on a cautious note today, reflecting a blend of global optimism and domestic concerns. While signals of a potential US-Iran deal offered some positive global cues, persistent outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and elevated crude oil prices are weighing on sentiment.
Global Markets and Key Indicators
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange showed a marginal increase of 18.60 points, or 0.08 per cent, reaching 23,650, suggesting a subdued start for the domestic market. Asian stocks generally moved higher, buoyed by hopes surrounding US-Iran peace discussions. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged over 2 per cent, with Hang Seng and KOSPI also registering slight gains.
On Wall Street, major indices closed marginally higher after a volatile session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked a record closing high, rising 0.55 per cent to 50,285.66. The S&P 500 gained 0.17 per cent to 7,445.72, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.09 per cent to 26,293.10.
Commodity and Currency Movements
- Crude Oil: Brent crude futures climbed 2 per cent to $104.71 a barrel, although they were still on track for a 6 per cent weekly decline. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased by 1.66 per cent to $98.01.
- Gold: Spot gold edged lower by 0.2 per cent to $4,534.29 per ounce, heading for its second consecutive weekly loss.
- US Dollar: The dollar index stood at 99.247 against a basket of currencies.
FII-DII Flows and Market Sentiment
Provisional data from the NSE revealed that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks on Thursday, offloading shares worth Rs 1,891.21 crore. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support, emerging as net buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,492.42 crore. This divergence in institutional activity highlights the mixed sentiment in the market.
Ankur Punj, MD & Business Head at Equirus Wealth, noted that investors are likely to focus on sector-specific opportunities. He added that easing volatility and sustained buying in mid- and small-cap stocks could continue to bolster market momentum in the near term.
Nifty50 and Sensex Outlook
Market analysts predict a period of range-bound activity for the Nifty50 and Sensex. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, indicated that the market encountered resistance near 23,850 for Nifty and 76,000 for Sensex. He identified crucial support zones for Nifty at 23,500-23,400 and for Sensex at 75,000-74,500. Key resistance areas are seen at 23,800-23,850 for Nifty and 75,800-76,000 for Sensex.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, echoed a cautious stance, suggesting that 23,400 would be a critical support level for Nifty, with a decisive breach potentially triggering panic selling. He believes a directional rally would require Nifty to move decisively above 23,800.
For Sensex, Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, points to 74,400–74,500 as an immediate support zone, while 76,100–76,200 may act as a key resistance. The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, eased by 3.5 per cent to 17.80 levels, which Nilesh Jain, VP-Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse, suggested could offer some comfort to bulls.
Nifty Bank Outlook
The Nifty Bank index, despite opening with an upside gap, failed to sustain higher levels and underwent a correction. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, stated that the 53,900–54,000 zone would act as immediate resistance, with crucial support expected around 53,100–53,000. A breach below 53,000 could intensify selling pressure.
Bajaj Broking highlighted that Nifty Bank formed a bearish candlestick pattern, signaling selling pressure near the 54,000 mark. The index is likely to consolidate within the 52,700-54,700 range. For a pause in the recent downtrend, the index needs to form higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis and move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,700. Key support remains at 52,700-52,400 levels.