Indian equity markets are anticipated to open with minimal change on Friday, as indicated by GIFT Nifty futures trading 27 points, or 0.11 percent, lower at 24,441 on the NSE International Exchange. This subdued sentiment comes despite reduced expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate hike in September, which is being offset by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Global Factors Influencing Market Sentiment
Brent crude futures stabilized at $87.03 per barrel after a dip on Thursday, poised for a 4 percent weekly gain that would break a two-week losing streak. The broader currency market has remained relatively steady, with the dollar finding support from higher oil prices. US producer price data further softened expectations for a Fed rate hike next month, providing some relief.
Globally, Asian stocks saw gains on Friday, heading for their strongest week. South Korea's KOSPI surged 1.6 percent, and Japan's Nikkei advanced nearly a percent, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged lower. US stocks closed higher on Thursday, buoyed by positive economic data and robust Q1 earnings. The S&P 500 climbed 0.65 percent to 7,798.99, surpassing its previous record, while the Nasdaq gained 0.81 percent to 26,803.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13 percent to 53,839.99.
Domestic Market Outlook: Nifty50 and Sensex
Analysts suggest the Nifty is likely to trade sideways with a marginal negative bias, influenced by escalating West Asian geopolitical tensions and elevated crude prices. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that with the Q1FY27 earnings season concluding, investor focus is shifting towards macro indicators and global developments.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, highlighted that Nifty is positioned above the crucial support of 24,300 but has struggled to sustain upside momentum. The underlying trend remains choppy with a weak bias. A bounce back is possible if Nifty holds above 24,200-24,300, with immediate resistance at 24,500.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, added that 24,450 is a key immediate resistance. A decisive move above this level is needed for a meaningful recovery, while a fall below 24,300 could trigger further market weakness. The index is expected to remain range-bound without a clear breakout.
For Sensex, Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Broking, observed a long red candle with a long lower shadow, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The broader outlook remains sideways with a 'buy-on-dips' bias, as the index holds near its key short-term moving average support. Sustaining the 77,400–77,600 zone is crucial, while a move above 78,300–78,500 could ignite fresh buying. Traders are advised a cautious buy-on-dips strategy within this range.
Nifty Bank Analysis
Nifty Bank formed a small-bodied bearish candle, closing within the previous day’s range, reflecting indecision. Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the RSI is moving sideways and the ADX is flat, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is in the 57,900-58,000 zone. A sustainable move above this could lead to a pullback towards 58,400 and then 58,800. On the downside, immediate support is at 57,200-57,100.
Bajaj Broking Research added that Bank Nifty's small bearish candle, enclosed within the previous session's range, signals consolidation with a corrective bias around the 20-day EMA. The index faces resistance at 58,000; a break above this could open paths to 58,500-58,700, while failure to do so may keep it consolidated within 57,000-58,000.
FII-DII Flows
Provisional data from NSE shows Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) were net sellers of domestic stocks worth Rs 510.69 crore on Thursday. Conversely, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers of Indian equities, purchasing Rs 4,353.09 crore on a net basis.