Yemen's Houthi rebels have reportedly completed preparations to initiate attacks on commercial shipping operating near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime choke point connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Sources close to the group indicate that missiles and drones have been deployed to strategic locations overlooking the strait, and the Houthis are now awaiting direct orders to commence operations.
This potential escalation comes at a sensitive time for global energy markets, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz already facing closure. Any disruption in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as a key gateway to the Red Sea, would simultaneously threaten two of the Middle East's primary oil export routes, intensifying an already precarious global energy crisis. The strait facilitates approximately 7% of the world's energy supplies.
According to reports, representatives from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who are present in Yemen, are expected to issue the ultimate directive for any closure or attack in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This aligns with earlier discussions within Iran's leadership, where the Houthi movement was reportedly asked to be ready to close the Red Sea oil route should the United States target Iranian power infrastructure.
Tensions in the region have been visibly rising. The Houthis recently fired missiles at Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control. This marked a significant breach of a four-year truce between the warring parties, further destabilizing the already volatile environment.
In anticipation of potential disruptions, Saudi Arabia has already diverted a substantial portion, approximately 70%, of its energy exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu via a pipeline. However, direct attacks on vessels or ports in the Red Sea would still pose a severe challenge to oil markets and global trade. Previous Houthi attacks on shipping during the Gaza war forced major companies to reroute cargoes around Africa, incurring significantly higher costs and longer transit times. Iran's clerical rulers appear to be leveraging the threat to Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil exports as a strategic move to pressure the United States, raising the potential economic cost to the global economy.