Antique Stock Broking has released a comprehensive report on the Indian hospitals sector, maintaining a positive outlook driven by strategic brownfield expansions, strong long-term growth prospects, and improving operational efficiencies. The brokerage has initiated coverage on several key players, assigning target prices and ratings based on future growth projections.
Positive Outlook for Healthcare Sector Growth
Analysts at Antique Stock Broking anticipate the Indian healthcare delivery market to expand at a healthy Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 10-12 percent, reaching an estimated Rs 12 lakh crore between fiscal years 2025 and 2030. They project that the share of treatments provided by private healthcare providers will increase from 64 percent in FY20 to approximately 69 percent by FY30E.
The report highlights significant capacity expansion within the sector. Between FY23 and FY26, 15 hospitals sampled by Antique added nearly 19,000 beds, bringing their total capacity to over 70,000. Looking ahead, these hospitals are expected to boost capacity by an additional 54 percent, reaching more than 108,000 beds over FY26-30E. A notable 63 percent of this planned expansion is through brownfield projects, which are expected to facilitate faster breakeven and higher Return on Capital Employed (RoCE).
Key Hospital Stock Ratings and Target Prices
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd (APHS)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: Rs 9,790
Antique expects Apollo Hospitals to deliver robust revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 16 percent, 20 percent, and 24 percent, respectively, over FY26-28E. The valuation is based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) methodology, considering various segments including hospitals, AHLL, Apollo Healthco's offline and online pharmacy businesses, and Keimed.
Global Health Ltd (Medanta)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: Rs 1,520
Medanta is valued at 27x FY28E EV/EBITDA, reflecting a positive outlook on its growth trajectory.
Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd (HCG)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: Rs 840
The brokerage believes KKR's involvement will accelerate HCG's growth through brownfield expansions, an improved payor mix, targeted marketing efforts, and continued margin expansion. HCG is projected to achieve an EBITDA CAGR of 25 percent over FY26-28E.
Max Healthcare Institute Ltd (MAXHEALT)
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: Rs 1,170
Max Healthcare is anticipated to see revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 19 percent, 21 percent, and 19 percent, respectively, over FY26-28E, with margins expected to expand by 100 basis points to 27 percent. EBITDA per bed is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10 percent, reaching Rs 88 lakh.
Artemis Medicare Services Ltd (ARTMSL)
- Rating: BUY (Reiterated)
- Target Price: Rs 340
Antique remains positive on Artemis Medicare, expecting improving economies of scale to drive higher profitability. The company is projected to post revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGRs of 27 percent, 34 percent, and 36 percent, respectively, over FY26-28E, with margins expanding by 190 basis points to 19.3 percent. EBITDA per bed is likely to grow at a CAGR of 2 percent, reaching Rs 57 lakh during the same period.
Antique Stock Broking's analysis underscores a bullish sentiment for the Indian hospital sector, driven by strategic expansions and operational efficiencies, despite varied individual stock recommendations.