A recent analysis by Elara Securities, published on April 16, 2026, highlights potential shifts in the Indian gas sector following signals that the US-Iran conflict is nearing an end. With US President Donald Trump indicating a potential normalisation, investors are keen to understand the implications for key gas stocks. Elara's report, which examined companies like GAIL India, Petronet LNG Ltd, Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL), Gujarat Gas Ltd, Indraprastha Gas (IGL), and Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL), suggests a future driven more by company-specific catalysts than broad market events.
Market Premiums Already Priced In
The brokerage notes that most gas stocks, with the exception of IGL, currently reflect crude oil levels of $85–89 per barrel. This suggests that much of the 'war normalisation premium' is already factored into current valuations. Consequently, major de-escalation-driven rallies are largely perceived as having played out.
Going forward, Elara Securities believes that upside will depend significantly on macroeconomic relief and individual company catalysts. These include factors such as earnings recovery, volume visibility, supportive policy drivers, and the dynamics between liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply.
MGL and Petronet LNG Poised for Outperformance
After updating its analytical framework, Elara Securities forecasts strong performance from Mahanagar Gas (MGL) and Petronet LNG. MGL is highlighted as the most attractive play, despite recent corrections, due to its limited exposure to the Strait of Hormuz disruptions and robust volume visibility, projecting a 10% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
Petronet LNG is expected to rebound strongly, bolstered by significant contracted LNG volumes in India. This ensures stable earnings amidst global supply tightness, with post-war Indian LNG imports comparable to the approximately 26 million tonnes imported in CY25.
GAIL, IGL, Gujarat Gas, and GSPL Outlook
For GAIL India and Indraprastha Gas (IGL), the analysis indicates a period of stable, market-aligned returns. Both stocks have shown meaningful recoveries during the conflict and currently trade at a modest 5–9% discount to their pre-war levels. While fundamentals remain stable, significant near-term upside appears capped.
Conversely, Gujarat Gas and Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) are expected to underperform. This is primarily due to a delayed recovery in industrial gas demand, stemming from unfavorable economics between LNG and LPG. Global LNG supply normalisation is also anticipated to be slower than LPG, with approximately 13 million tonnes (20% of uncontracted LNG supply) from Qatar requiring more than three years to ramp up fully.
Disclaimer
This article provides market news for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.